3 ms·

> I felt that the professor's explanation for why the prediction failed (people decided to keep working lots and buy more stuff instead of chillin) totally unsa

> I felt that the professor's explanation for why the prediction failed (people decided to keep working lots and buy more stuff instead of chillin) totally unsatisfactory. I disagree with this conclusion. I, for one, never decided to work more, I simply don't have a real choice. No one will hire a 15hr/wk person except in positions that don't pay enough per hour to make a living wage anyway. If I could cut my current salary to 37.5% to only work 15hr/wk I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Retric 6y ago
The option to quit and only work either every other year or every 6 months is more viable. Though still job/industry specific, many people pull this off.
- cjg 6y ago
  Or work 7 years and then retire. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/
- AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
  Yeah, because a resume with that work history is going to go over so well?
  - Retric 6y ago
    Seasonal jobs or contracting work etc can cover up such things.
    - dalbasal 6y ago
      You can always be eccentric, go off script and life hack Keynes' predictions into existence. However, people mostly don't and economics is about what people do.
      - Retric 6y ago
        I think that’s overly dismissive as many people do work like this. It’s up to the individual if doing animation work in 6 month bursts for individual movies is enough or if they want near full time employment. 6 month rotations are common in many tiny industries like super yacht crews. Major industries like education, farming, construction, and tourism are quite seasonal and it’s up to individuals if they take that time off or work an off season job.
        throwaway316943 6y ago
        For those industries you listed the same would have been true in the 1930s when the prediction was made so I don’t think Keynes was referring to those. In all likelihood he was talking about manufacturing and professional jobs. The divergence seems to be that the blue collar workers were fired and/or their jobs offshored while not much has changed for the white collar workers except for the digitization of paperwork and the elimination of support roles with accompanying responsibilities now transferred to the professional. I think we screwed the pooch on this one and we should own up to it.
  - 3np 6y ago
    I hear this a lot but is it really a thing? It’s so normal to have gap years now and I feel the vast majority of employers would be understanding. I certainly wouldn’t find it strange that an applicant had gaps in their CV.
dalbasal 6y ago
I agree. That means we both disagree with what was (at least circa 2003), a fairly standard economist's perspective. In a nutshell, Keynes made assumptions about economic growth (correct). He then riffed on assumptions for income effects (if I pay you more, will you work more?) and substitution effects (if you have more money, will you work less?). Those are not very hard to populate. Ask poor people, observe higher income people's behaviours. The standard retort my professor gave (people decided to keep working lots and buy more stuff instead of chillin)is, IMO, the favoured explanation because it's parsimonious with theory. It fails when it meets reality, in the form of people. Ask a median person why they don't chill more and work less and you'll get strange looks. If interested, I think concepts in the "cost of thriving index^" are probably key to understanding why economists are (I agree) mostly wrong on this. In any case, I think the keynes prediction, is an invaluable starting point... being from the past. A modern economist might defend the theory, with the "chill more" defense. I doubt they would bring it up though. No one is going to make a false prediction about the past to test a theory they support. ^ https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/the-cost-of-thriving-index-OC.pdf https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/t...
- handol 6y ago
  That gets into politics, history, sociology, how the subject of economics itself interacts with politics and affects history. Best to move on quickly and discourage the students from thinking about it.
hawaiianbrah 6y ago
Same! Microsoft may be making this more available... https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote-work-from-home-covid-19-coronavirus https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote... > Flexible working hours will also be available without manager approval, and employees can also request part-time work hours through their managers.
leetcrew 6y ago
> If I could cut my current salary to 37.5% to only work 15hr/wk I'd do it in a heartbeat. this raises another problem that keynes may not have forseen (not sure when he made this prediction). people don't necessarily realize how much it costs to employ them beyond just their salary. stuff like health insurance, software licenses, and physical equipment/space doesn't scale with the hours worked by an employee (at least, not linearly). 37.5% of pay for 37.5% of the normal work week might sound good to you, but sounds pretty bad to your employer. they get 37.5% of the working hours for you, but pay well over 37.5% of the original cost. even if given the choice, I highly doubt most people would accept a superlinear pay cut in exchange for decreased hours.
- laksdjfkasljdf 6y ago
  You should take a mba class or open a business. You will see those one time/fee costs do not scale, but to the benefit of the employer.
mpfundstein 6y ago
become a freelancer. i work maybe 20 hrs per week max. and still earn more than i did as director of 30 people just get your sales in order and fill a niche
- mac01021 6y ago
  Can I ask what your niche is?
  - mpfundstein 6y ago
    sure. deep learning for crowd monitoring and custom IoT solutions
    - mac01021 6y ago
      That is fairly specialized! It sounds like you're in a great position. "Getting one's sales in order" is by far the hardest part, though. I have no idea how to do that.
      - mpfundstein 6y ago
        its hard in the beginning, true. make sure to tell EVERYONE what you are doing. most early opportunities came through people who knew people who knew people with money and problems. you d be surprised how many companies look for help but dont really advertise it. after a year or so, new jobs will begin to just flow in as you will have built creds. then you essentially can pick and choose. also learn to think like your buyers. help them to win. dont sell, cooperate. be a partner.

Retric 6y ago

The option to quit and only work either every other year or every 6 months is more viable. Though still job/industry specific, many people pull this off.

cjg 6y ago
Or work 7 years and then retire. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/
AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
Yeah, because a resume with that work history is going to go over so well?
- Retric 6y ago
  Seasonal jobs or contracting work etc can cover up such things.
  - dalbasal 6y ago
    You can always be eccentric, go off script and life hack Keynes' predictions into existence. However, people mostly don't and economics is about what people do.
    - Retric 6y ago
      I think that’s overly dismissive as many people do work like this. It’s up to the individual if doing animation work in 6 month bursts for individual movies is enough or if they want near full time employment. 6 month rotations are common in many tiny industries like super yacht crews. Major industries like education, farming, construction, and tourism are quite seasonal and it’s up to individuals if they take that time off or work an off season job.
      - throwaway316943 6y ago
        For those industries you listed the same would have been true in the 1930s when the prediction was made so I don’t think Keynes was referring to those. In all likelihood he was talking about manufacturing and professional jobs. The divergence seems to be that the blue collar workers were fired and/or their jobs offshored while not much has changed for the white collar workers except for the digitization of paperwork and the elimination of support roles with accompanying responsibilities now transferred to the professional. I think we screwed the pooch on this one and we should own up to it.
- 3np 6y ago
  I hear this a lot but is it really a thing? It’s so normal to have gap years now and I feel the vast majority of employers would be understanding. I certainly wouldn’t find it strange that an applicant had gaps in their CV.

dalbasal 6y ago

I agree. That means we both disagree with what was (at least circa 2003), a fairly standard economist's perspective. In a nutshell, Keynes made assumptions about economic growth (correct). He then riffed on assumptions for income effects (if I pay you more, will you work more?) and substitution effects (if you have more money, will you work less?). Those are not very hard to populate. Ask poor people, observe higher income people's behaviours. The standard retort my professor gave (people decided to keep working lots and buy more stuff instead of chillin)is, IMO, the favoured explanation because it's parsimonious with theory. It fails when it meets reality, in the form of people. Ask a median person why they don't chill more and work less and you'll get strange looks. If interested, I think concepts in the "cost of thriving index^" are probably key to understanding why economists are (I agree) mostly wrong on this. In any case, I think the keynes prediction, is an invaluable starting point... being from the past. A modern economist might defend the theory, with the "chill more" defense. I doubt they would bring it up though. No one is going to make a false prediction about the past to test a theory they support. ^ https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/the-cost-of-thriving-index-OC.pdf https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/t...

handol 6y ago
That gets into politics, history, sociology, how the subject of economics itself interacts with politics and affects history. Best to move on quickly and discourage the students from thinking about it.

hawaiianbrah 6y ago

Same! Microsoft may be making this more available... https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote-work-from-home-covid-19-coronavirus https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote... > Flexible working hours will also be available without manager approval, and employees can also request part-time work hours through their managers.

leetcrew 6y ago

> If I could cut my current salary to 37.5% to only work 15hr/wk I'd do it in a heartbeat. this raises another problem that keynes may not have forseen (not sure when he made this prediction). people don't necessarily realize how much it costs to employ them beyond just their salary. stuff like health insurance, software licenses, and physical equipment/space doesn't scale with the hours worked by an employee (at least, not linearly). 37.5% of pay for 37.5% of the normal work week might sound good to you, but sounds pretty bad to your employer. they get 37.5% of the working hours for you, but pay well over 37.5% of the original cost. even if given the choice, I highly doubt most people would accept a superlinear pay cut in exchange for decreased hours.

laksdjfkasljdf 6y ago
You should take a mba class or open a business. You will see those one time/fee costs do not scale, but to the benefit of the employer.

mpfundstein 6y ago

become a freelancer. i work maybe 20 hrs per week max. and still earn more than i did as director of 30 people just get your sales in order and fill a niche

mac01021 6y ago
Can I ask what your niche is?
- mpfundstein 6y ago
  sure. deep learning for crowd monitoring and custom IoT solutions
  - mac01021 6y ago
    That is fairly specialized! It sounds like you're in a great position. "Getting one's sales in order" is by far the hardest part, though. I have no idea how to do that.
    - mpfundstein 6y ago
      its hard in the beginning, true. make sure to tell EVERYONE what you are doing. most early opportunities came through people who knew people who knew people with money and problems. you d be surprised how many companies look for help but dont really advertise it. after a year or so, new jobs will begin to just flow in as you will have built creds. then you essentially can pick and choose. also learn to think like your buyers. help them to win. dont sell, cooperate. be a partner.