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There are many reasons why I dont believe in self driving cars, the first (and strongest) is to imagine that the software was written by my collegues (and mysel

There are many reasons why I dont believe in self driving cars, the first (and strongest) is to imagine that the software was written by my collegues (and myself).

colinmhayes 6y ago
I mean in that case imagine these people being allowed to drive. There's no reason computers can't be better than people, and many reasons they could be better.
- throwaway2048 6y ago
  Not sure what being able to program has to do with being able to drive.
- pskinner 6y ago
  Being able to drive safely is not the same skill as being able to construct a system that can drive safely.
- falcolas 6y ago
  > There's no reason computers can't be better than people It is entirely possible, however, that the computers and software systems available today can't be better than humans.
  - ggreer 6y ago
    There are advantages and disadvantages to each. The computer failure methods are new to us, but we're all too familiar with human failings. Humans have much slower reaction times. Humans get sleepy, drunk, or distracted. Humans sometimes get angry or impatient and do dangerous things with their vehicles. The important metric is accidents per mile driven. Right now, Teslas on autopilot seem to be significantly safer than human drivers. From Tesla's vehicle safety report[1]: > ...we registered one accident for every 4.53 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.27 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.56 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles. Yes autopilot has issues and limitations, but it's already 3x safer than unaided drivers. Also, it seems to be improving in safety. Two years ago, autopilot's crash rate was only 1.5x lower than unaided Tesla drivers. 1. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
    - Ekaros 6y ago
      Now are those metrics comparable? Are they normalized for conditions and location? That is situations where autopilot disengages and driver does not take action counted in? Weather, type of road and so on has huge effect on number of accidents. Unless those are taken in consideration it's only lies...
      - falcolas 6y ago
        I'm going to say that these are not normalized. It's fairly well known (and NHTSA data backs it up) that the accident rate for the types of vehicle Tesla builds (luxury 4/5 door sedans) accounts for a fraction of total vehicle accidents. A portion of this is a result of the ability for young adults to purchases $30-40,000 cars: 16-19 yo drivers make up around 2/5 of the total accidents in the US. https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/ https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri... Additionally, 4 door sedans in general (which describes most Tesla models) are only involved in approximately 27% of all accidents. The Model X, a compact SUV, only accounts for about 13% of all accidents. https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm# https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm# (look at table 37) But it doesn't make for nearly as good of a press release.
JKCalhoun 6y ago
I sort of find the idea of self-driving cars as ... selfish? Don't want to drive, take the bus. The idea that we all need our personal chariots (and now robotic chauffeurs) seems to me to be the height of irresponsibility. And, yes, I am guilty of owning a car myself and feel guilt about it. But for some reason the self-driving bit just seems to take it to another level for me. Maybe too there's an air of elitism about it since we are in fact talking about cars that cost what most people make in an entire year.
- gruez 6y ago
  But what if self-driving cars were 10x safer than human-driven cars? Seems like your issue is with the personal vehicle bit, not the self driving bit. >Don't want to drive, take the bus. And what if my area has shitty bus service?
  - InitialLastName 6y ago
    Make it better? Move to a better area? I strongly advise that anyone who pays attention to national politics diversify at least 50% of that energy into local issues.
    - noodlesoups 6y ago
      Moving has a lot of inertia, and might not be possible if nobody is interesting in buying your house, or other area's rent is too high. Your area might have _had_ great service, but has rapidly degraded. There are tons of things outside your control. Having a car is the common answer to gain back some of that.
      - InitialLastName 6y ago
        You'll notice I had a solution ahead of moving.
  - heavyset_go 6y ago
    > But what if self-driving cars were 10x safer than human-driven cars? But there is no evidence of this, or that they're even as safe as human drivers. In fact, Teslas are involved in more accidents than other luxury cars.
arminiusreturns 6y ago
Having been in the industry, you have no idea. I never rode in our vehicles... for a reason.
tshaddox 6y ago
There are lots of systems which support life and run software which, if it fails, will cause death. Literal life-support systems are one obvious example, but there are many many more. All of that software is written by your colleagues.

There are many reasons why I dont believe in self driving cars, the first (and strongest) is to imagine that the software was written by my collegues (and myself).

colinmhayes 6y ago

I mean in that case imagine these people being allowed to drive. There's no reason computers can't be better than people, and many reasons they could be better.

throwaway2048 6y ago
Not sure what being able to program has to do with being able to drive.
pskinner 6y ago
Being able to drive safely is not the same skill as being able to construct a system that can drive safely.
falcolas 6y ago
> There's no reason computers can't be better than people It is entirely possible, however, that the computers and software systems available today can't be better than humans.
- ggreer 6y ago
  There are advantages and disadvantages to each. The computer failure methods are new to us, but we're all too familiar with human failings. Humans have much slower reaction times. Humans get sleepy, drunk, or distracted. Humans sometimes get angry or impatient and do dangerous things with their vehicles. The important metric is accidents per mile driven. Right now, Teslas on autopilot seem to be significantly safer than human drivers. From Tesla's vehicle safety report[1]: > ...we registered one accident for every 4.53 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.27 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.56 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles. Yes autopilot has issues and limitations, but it's already 3x safer than unaided drivers. Also, it seems to be improving in safety. Two years ago, autopilot's crash rate was only 1.5x lower than unaided Tesla drivers. 1. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
  - Ekaros 6y ago
    Now are those metrics comparable? Are they normalized for conditions and location? That is situations where autopilot disengages and driver does not take action counted in? Weather, type of road and so on has huge effect on number of accidents. Unless those are taken in consideration it's only lies...
    - falcolas 6y ago
      I'm going to say that these are not normalized. It's fairly well known (and NHTSA data backs it up) that the accident rate for the types of vehicle Tesla builds (luxury 4/5 door sedans) accounts for a fraction of total vehicle accidents. A portion of this is a result of the ability for young adults to purchases $30-40,000 cars: 16-19 yo drivers make up around 2/5 of the total accidents in the US. https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/ https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri... Additionally, 4 door sedans in general (which describes most Tesla models) are only involved in approximately 27% of all accidents. The Model X, a compact SUV, only accounts for about 13% of all accidents. https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm# https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/tsftables/tsfar.htm# (look at table 37) But it doesn't make for nearly as good of a press release.

JKCalhoun 6y ago

I sort of find the idea of self-driving cars as ... selfish? Don't want to drive, take the bus. The idea that we all need our personal chariots (and now robotic chauffeurs) seems to me to be the height of irresponsibility. And, yes, I am guilty of owning a car myself and feel guilt about it. But for some reason the self-driving bit just seems to take it to another level for me. Maybe too there's an air of elitism about it since we are in fact talking about cars that cost what most people make in an entire year.

gruez 6y ago
But what if self-driving cars were 10x safer than human-driven cars? Seems like your issue is with the personal vehicle bit, not the self driving bit. >Don't want to drive, take the bus. And what if my area has shitty bus service?
- InitialLastName 6y ago
  Make it better? Move to a better area? I strongly advise that anyone who pays attention to national politics diversify at least 50% of that energy into local issues.
  - noodlesoups 6y ago
    Moving has a lot of inertia, and might not be possible if nobody is interesting in buying your house, or other area's rent is too high. Your area might have _had_ great service, but has rapidly degraded. There are tons of things outside your control. Having a car is the common answer to gain back some of that.
    - InitialLastName 6y ago
      You'll notice I had a solution ahead of moving.
- heavyset_go 6y ago
  > But what if self-driving cars were 10x safer than human-driven cars? But there is no evidence of this, or that they're even as safe as human drivers. In fact, Teslas are involved in more accidents than other luxury cars.

arminiusreturns 6y ago

Having been in the industry, you have no idea. I never rode in our vehicles... for a reason.

tshaddox 6y ago

There are lots of systems which support life and run software which, if it fails, will cause death. Literal life-support systems are one obvious example, but there are many many more. All of that software is written by your colleagues.