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The IPCC report received plenty of criticism. The report summary left out some of the more alarming findings [1] (which were conveniently not addressed in your

The IPCC report received plenty of criticism. The report summary left out some of the more alarming findings [1] (which were conveniently not addressed in your reason article) and there was valid criticism about the consensus model that was used[2]. In terms of bad faith/good faith arguments. One can argue in good faith, that the large amounts of uncertainty associated with the climate models means that the worst case outcomes can not be definitively ruled out and therefore humanity should plan for the worst case scenario as a precautionary measure. And based on this argument, made in good faith, and also based on the fact that it has been extremely difficult to get the necessary global political buy-in to actually make any progress on the problem, one could justify being extremely alarmist about the problem. I will give you credit though, for attempting to make a good faith argument for why climate change alarmism might be overblown. But I think you fail to acknowledge the large uncertainties involved with climate modeling, and you are also ignoring some of the more alarming risks that were well with in the realm of possibility based on the models. And I also think your economic argument is just flat out wrong. WWII mobilization was followed by some of the most prosperous decades in US history. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/08/world-leaders-climate-change-ipcc-report https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/08/world-... [2] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-climate-report-was-too-cautious-some-scientists-say/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-climate-repor...

labster 6y ago
The large uncertainties in climate modeling have only been getting smaller, as we've made progress on estimating cloud feedback lately. Fundamentally, there is a lot of guesswork (aka parameterizations) but these are all tuned with as much data as we can get. Projections made in 1980 and 1990 have been pretty accurate so far, and show the warming world we live in now, so it should count for something. But despite all of the complexities in the science, I think people have missed the human element. The hundreds of thousands of people that have already died from climate change, such as: the increase in tropical cyclones, the crop failures which sparked the Syrian civil war, the mass migration therefrom which has sparked the rise of nativism and right populism in Western democracies, expansion of harmful insects into environments that used to be too cold to support them that cause fires or famines, and the water shortages worldwide which add economic stress to the people. None of these things are directly attributable to climate change, but collectively they set a story that we're already in the middle of a climate disaster. Will we all die? No. But the mass death and destruction is already around us. And if we keep burning fossil fuels, it can only get worse.

labster 6y ago

The large uncertainties in climate modeling have only been getting smaller, as we've made progress on estimating cloud feedback lately. Fundamentally, there is a lot of guesswork (aka parameterizations) but these are all tuned with as much data as we can get. Projections made in 1980 and 1990 have been pretty accurate so far, and show the warming world we live in now, so it should count for something. But despite all of the complexities in the science, I think people have missed the human element. The hundreds of thousands of people that have already died from climate change, such as: the increase in tropical cyclones, the crop failures which sparked the Syrian civil war, the mass migration therefrom which has sparked the rise of nativism and right populism in Western democracies, expansion of harmful insects into environments that used to be too cold to support them that cause fires or famines, and the water shortages worldwide which add economic stress to the people. None of these things are directly attributable to climate change, but collectively they set a story that we're already in the middle of a climate disaster. Will we all die? No. But the mass death and destruction is already around us. And if we keep burning fossil fuels, it can only get worse.