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Don't we all want silver bullets? My perspective is strongly influenced from a system dynamics perspective -> money and time in -> experience out. It we look a
by heisenbit 6y ago
Don't we all want silver bullets?
My perspective is strongly influenced from a system dynamics perspective -> money and time in -> experience out. It we look at the whole space and then seed it with lots of money and huge time pressure we get condensation around those kernels. These will be island solutions and they will be very good as lots of money was available. But no money can buy enough calendar time to coordinate over distance. In good old times (TM) we had larger scale solutions but those also took years to develop and the outcome was often less than perfect. At the moment we have a more component architecture (and as they were build in semi-isolation integration is lowest common denominator).
Where does this lead us to? Innovation on the semiconductor layer slows dramatically as financial cost of the next generation explodes, speed-up has stalled and density improvements have slowed. This gives us more time on the software level. The fragmented software landscape makes is harder to do first-one-takes-it-all. Larger consolidated integrations may again be doable as more calendar time is available.