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Nonwhite Democrats are culturally far more conservative than white progressives on every issue except for racial issues. This will come to bite Democrats in a b

by ls612 6y ago

Nonwhite Democrats are culturally far more conservative than white progressives on every issue except for racial issues. This will come to bite Democrats in a big way probably, as I’m almost sure the republicans will sooner or later nominate a nonwhite candidate (Nikki Haley??) and Democrats won’t get the ‘demographic’ vote they were hoping for.

rayiner 6y ago
White progressives have become more liberal on race issues recently as well: https://www.vox.com/2019/3/22/18259865/great-awokening-white-liberals-race-polling-trump-2020 https://www.vox.com/2019/3/22/18259865/great-awokening-white... > In the past five years, white liberals have moved so far to the left on questions of race and racism that they are now, on these issues, to the left of even the typical black voter. Trump has plumbed the bottom of the non-white vote. The protests rankled many Latinos. In recent YouGov polling, a narrow majority of Latinos rated “the breakdown of law and order” as a “bigger problem” then “systemic racism.” Meanwhile, Millenial Black voters are twice as likely to have favorable or somewhat favorable views of Trump than older Black voters: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/ucla-study-finds-younger-black-voters-have-been-trending-toward-trump https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/ucla-study... > The data collected from April 2-May 13 by the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, an initiative that conducted weekly surveys of thousands of potential voters for nearly a year, found that 29% of percent of black voters ages 30-44 and 21% ages 18-29 have a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" view of President Trump. This compares to just 14% of black voters 45-64 and 9% of those 65 and older. It’s not going to be Mitt Romney’s Republican Party. But Democrats shouldn’t be popping champagne corks assuming that the opposing party will never be in power again.
ntsplnkv2 6y ago
The republicans have gone too far right for this to work and have left many moderate republicans in no-mans land. Nikki Haley is not as popular as republicans think she is - she's largely irrelevant right now.
tptacek 6y ago
There's research suggesting it's not this simple, and that Black voting is highly coordinated and communitarian. Already, we have strong indicators that most voting is about personal identification and not about fitting candidates to a personal ideological profile (Achen and Bartels). Combine that with White And Laird's observations about the dynamics of Black voting (heavily identified with the Democratic party, and with an awareness of the influence in the party their bloc voting gets them), and I don't think you can just run a Black Republican and peel off that cohort of Democratic voters. What's more likely to happen is that the progressive dream of celebrity politicians in places like NYC will run aground of what the party is actually game for, because, as you observe, huge portions of the Democratic coalition are far more conservative than the Take Factory gives them credit for.

by ls612 6y ago

rayiner 6y ago

White progressives have become more liberal on race issues recently as well: https://www.vox.com/2019/3/22/18259865/great-awokening-white-liberals-race-polling-trump-2020 https://www.vox.com/2019/3/22/18259865/great-awokening-white... > In the past five years, white liberals have moved so far to the left on questions of race and racism that they are now, on these issues, to the left of even the typical black voter. Trump has plumbed the bottom of the non-white vote. The protests rankled many Latinos. In recent YouGov polling, a narrow majority of Latinos rated “the breakdown of law and order” as a “bigger problem” then “systemic racism.” Meanwhile, Millenial Black voters are twice as likely to have favorable or somewhat favorable views of Trump than older Black voters: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/ucla-study-finds-younger-black-voters-have-been-trending-toward-trump https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/ucla-study... > The data collected from April 2-May 13 by the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, an initiative that conducted weekly surveys of thousands of potential voters for nearly a year, found that 29% of percent of black voters ages 30-44 and 21% ages 18-29 have a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" view of President Trump. This compares to just 14% of black voters 45-64 and 9% of those 65 and older. It’s not going to be Mitt Romney’s Republican Party. But Democrats shouldn’t be popping champagne corks assuming that the opposing party will never be in power again.

ntsplnkv2 6y ago

The republicans have gone too far right for this to work and have left many moderate republicans in no-mans land. Nikki Haley is not as popular as republicans think she is - she's largely irrelevant right now.

tptacek 6y ago

There's research suggesting it's not this simple, and that Black voting is highly coordinated and communitarian. Already, we have strong indicators that most voting is about personal identification and not about fitting candidates to a personal ideological profile (Achen and Bartels). Combine that with White And Laird's observations about the dynamics of Black voting (heavily identified with the Democratic party, and with an awareness of the influence in the party their bloc voting gets them), and I don't think you can just run a Black Republican and peel off that cohort of Democratic voters. What's more likely to happen is that the progressive dream of celebrity politicians in places like NYC will run aground of what the party is actually game for, because, as you observe, huge portions of the Democratic coalition are far more conservative than the Take Factory gives them credit for.