> The general idea is that you have forecasters who make predictions on multiple topics A, B, C, and D that have all not happened at the time of the prediction.

> The general idea is that you have forecasters who make predictions on multiple topics A, B, C, and D that have all not happened at the time of the prediction. Then, by looking at the outcomes of A, B, and C you can judge the ability of the forecaster to make prediction on topics what have not yet occurred at the time of prediction. You can then become confident on their ability to predict topic D before it occurs. Thanks, that really clarified the idea for me :)