I'm no TV show buff, but what I gather from my friends, your premise is pretty much false in many cases. First, in the age of binge watching, people might be s

I'm no TV show buff, but what I gather from my friends, your premise is pretty much false in many cases. First, in the age of binge watching, people might be specifically looking for shows with tons of episodes/seasons out to sink their teeth in. Second, some shows take a while to "warm up" and get the word of mouth out before they catch on. Some shows might be dozens of episodes in before they become wildly popular. You say that Breaking Bad and GOT break the dynamic, but I think it's far more common that very popular shows do so after they've been out for a while. Third, with episodic formats it doesn't matter if a show is long running, people can jump in or out at any given time. Fourth, people might enter your target demographic over time. You say that the potential viewers of season 3 are the viewers of season 2, but what about a new batch of viewers of season 1? Let's say your demographic is young adults. Every year you have teens entering your target demographic, and you could count those as potential viewers of your show. And again, on the age of the internet, is dead easy to start viewing a show from the beginning at any time.