One belongs to the USSR and one belongs to China Standard orbital propagation models like SGP4 can have a few km of error over the course of days. There's a lo

One belongs to the USSR and one belongs to China Standard orbital propagation models like SGP4 can have a few km of error over the course of days. There's a lot of variables that change over time. As hard as it is to predict terrestrial weather, space weather is even worse. It looks like the objects' orbits take them above and below the thermopause, and the thermopause itself is mobile which makes things even more complicated