Adding slightly to it: they use Brier scores to say how "good" someone is at prediction. Because these predictions require a probability of confidence, you can

Adding slightly to it: they use Brier scores to say how "good" someone is at prediction. Because these predictions require a probability of confidence, you can punish those who were confidently wrong or reward those who were confidently right. So if I predict "aliens will land on or before December 1st" with 100% and no aliens appear, then my Brier score is 1 (the worst). If I say 0% confidence, then my score is 0 (the best). There are dozens and dozens of ways of scoring prediction ability, as it happens: https://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/verif_web_page.html https://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/verif_web_pag...