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Lived and worked in San Francisco for over 25 years. The last decade I lived in the East Bay, we wanted to buy property and felt the most financially responsibl
by w6fu 6y ago
Lived and worked in San Francisco for over 25 years. The last decade I lived in the East Bay, we wanted to buy property and felt the most financially responsible place was there.
We left in 2018.
Having lived there for so long I thought I had seen everything. There was always an atmosphere of drugs in the air, homeless people, crazies on the street... but San Francisco was the city I had grown to love and you took the good with the bad.
I'm not exactly sure when it started but you kind of iterate here and there and somehow we got to the point that is just wasn't safe any longer. I had to walk that line at Civic Center BART at 6:30am and there was nothing but bad things happening on either side of you. Needles all over the street. EVERYWHERE. People on the street bend over for half hour at a time high on heroine or fentanyl or whatever. Anyway, you've all seen it... it became too much for even a pretty forgivable long term resident to put up with and we ended up in Austin. Well, outside Austin in the suburbs (our equivalent of the East Bay I guess). FWIW Austin is starting to head in the same direction so we chose to stay outside of Travis County, but that's just me having felt burnt once and not caring to have it happen again. Anyways, digressing...
I worry about San Francisco.
54% of businesses have been closed for months, and there's no end in sight.
https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Half-of-all-San-Francisco-storefronts-have-closed-15513726.php https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Half-of-all-San-Fran...
2,000 of those businesses have closed for good. There will be more.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/More-than-2-000-SF-businesses-closed-permanently-15468195.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/More-than-2-000...
Lots of tech companies are going fully remote.
https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/companies-switching-remote-work-long-term/ https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/companies-switching-remot...
Tech companies are starting to pull out of high dollar SF leases.
https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Pinterest-terminate-SF-office-lease-88-Bluxome-15525421.php https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Pinterest-terminate-...
Most people live in San Francisco because there is a lot of fun stuff to do (not the case right now) and there are tons of job in tech (these are all starting to leave, or go remote first anyway). So there's no real reason to live in San Francisco any longer. Not right now anyway.
Don't take my word for it, SF rents have "cratered" 31% over the past year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/san-francisco-studio-apartment-rents-plunge-31-most-in-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/san-franc...
Sales tax income is crashing because people are straight up leaving.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/S-F-sales-tax-data-shows-likely-population-15632448.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/S-F-sales-tax-d...
So given the dynamic of more crime (due to lack of prosecution), more homeless because the City allows tents everywhere, less workforce from companies going remote, less income from sales tax, less income from commercial real estate, and a rental market that's crashing... Well, it's not looking great, now is it.
There's another crisis that will hit after this, and that's the real estate market. All of these variables will play into that, and if they don't turn it around real soon it's going to be apocalyptic. The good news, that's not happening yet.
https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/san-francisco-home-prices-market-trends-news https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/san-francisco-hom...
I'm not saying I'm an expert or anything, but you look around and you have to wonder how long that will be the case.
Best of luck, San Francisco. You're going to need it.
- jxramos 6y agoI recently ran some online quotes from Uhaul for a moving truck from SF to Austin and it rang in at like roughly $4000. Going the opposite direction, $1000.