4 ms·

"It’s all happened before" doesn't imply "will be fine". For instance, the Civil War happened but I wouldn't call that being fine. And survivorship bias being w

"It’s all happened before" doesn't imply "will be fine". For instance, the Civil War happened but I wouldn't call that being fine. And survivorship bias being what it is, just because the country survived certain major crises in the past doesn't mean it will survive them in the future.

keiferski 6y ago
The comparisons to the Civil War make no sense and just illustrate my point that historical education is deeply lacking. As someone else already pointed out, the issues today are still nothing compared to the 60s. Current domestic issues have nothing to do with the Civil War. There is no state-like military complex ready to secede. There is no geographic division that lends itself to secession. Etc. etc. The only reason this is invoked is because it's the only meme that most people are aware of, not because it's even remotely accurate. Even something like the 90s Balkan Wars is so far from the contemporary American situation, it's absurd to compare it. The only thing that's truly new is the media's profit motive for creating a perception of chaos. Of course, the fact that things have worked out in the past doesn't mean they will always work out in the future. But people who compare contemporary America to the Fall of the Roman Empire or the American Civil War really don't know much about either.
- kazagistar 6y ago
  No, you are right, the situation is much more comparable to Weimar Germany, which is far far worse.
  - keiferski 6y ago
    While there are parallels to Weimar Germany, again I don't think this is actually a useful comparison and it's mostly used as a fascist boogeyman. Major factors in Weimar that don't exist in America/the West today: - Immediately after a massively destructive war that affected all levels of society - Populace of young men with PTSD and military experience - Little/no social safety nets - No history of democracy - remember that prior to Weimar, Germany was governed by Prussia and basically had no democratic traditions IMO the real actual historical comparison to use in 2020 is the Printing Press and Protestant Reformation; i.e. established power structure (the Catholic Church) dealing with new information-propagation technologies and factions. I'd bet that 2050 is going to look a lot like 1550.
    - kazagistar 6y ago
      You can name factors, but that doesn't mean those factors are the most critical ones, just the ones that support your narrative.
      - keiferski 6y ago
        I mean, I don’t really have a narrative here. I just find the comparison to Weimar unconvincing. Modern culture, in its inability to generate new futures (see Baudrillard, Deleuze, etc.) constantly looks backwards. The popular trend now seems to be reframing the 2020s as a 1920s redux, but again, I think this is mostly lazy ignorance.

keiferski 6y ago

The comparisons to the Civil War make no sense and just illustrate my point that historical education is deeply lacking. As someone else already pointed out, the issues today are still nothing compared to the 60s. Current domestic issues have nothing to do with the Civil War. There is no state-like military complex ready to secede. There is no geographic division that lends itself to secession. Etc. etc. The only reason this is invoked is because it's the only meme that most people are aware of, not because it's even remotely accurate. Even something like the 90s Balkan Wars is so far from the contemporary American situation, it's absurd to compare it. The only thing that's truly new is the media's profit motive for creating a perception of chaos. Of course, the fact that things have worked out in the past doesn't mean they will always work out in the future. But people who compare contemporary America to the Fall of the Roman Empire or the American Civil War really don't know much about either.

kazagistar 6y ago
No, you are right, the situation is much more comparable to Weimar Germany, which is far far worse.
- keiferski 6y ago
  While there are parallels to Weimar Germany, again I don't think this is actually a useful comparison and it's mostly used as a fascist boogeyman. Major factors in Weimar that don't exist in America/the West today: - Immediately after a massively destructive war that affected all levels of society - Populace of young men with PTSD and military experience - Little/no social safety nets - No history of democracy - remember that prior to Weimar, Germany was governed by Prussia and basically had no democratic traditions IMO the real actual historical comparison to use in 2020 is the Printing Press and Protestant Reformation; i.e. established power structure (the Catholic Church) dealing with new information-propagation technologies and factions. I'd bet that 2050 is going to look a lot like 1550.
  - kazagistar 6y ago
    You can name factors, but that doesn't mean those factors are the most critical ones, just the ones that support your narrative.
    - keiferski 6y ago
      I mean, I don’t really have a narrative here. I just find the comparison to Weimar unconvincing. Modern culture, in its inability to generate new futures (see Baudrillard, Deleuze, etc.) constantly looks backwards. The popular trend now seems to be reframing the 2020s as a 1920s redux, but again, I think this is mostly lazy ignorance.