Also worth noting: it's about being better than an existing baseline. Effectiveness is measured in relation to a baseline accuracy, which can already be quite p

Also worth noting: it's about being better than an existing baseline. Effectiveness is measured in relation to a baseline accuracy, which can already be quite poor. Suppose you make predictions about 100 events, and only 25 of these events actually take place. Your baseline might be in relation to these 25 events, and your 'superforecaster' needs to be better than an existing model, which could be really bad at predicting these odd/weird outcomes. Now you're better than everything else! :)