4 ms·

The inevitable reversal of fortune will be a very interesting drama. Will it be like Chicago, where any attempt to shrink government is stymied and taxes are ra

The inevitable reversal of fortune will be a very interesting drama. Will it be like Chicago, where any attempt to shrink government is stymied and taxes are ratcheted upwards every year just to tread water on bloated pensions? Or will it collapse into bankruptcy like Detroit? The amount of inefficiency and waste of resources in SF is unfathomable. Eventually the chickens come home to roost.

ashtonkem 6y ago
Chicago and Detroit also look pretty different economically. Detroit was overbuilt and depended too heavily on car manufacturing, which left it vulnerable to collapse. Chicago meanwhile is still a pretty decent sized transit hub, and it has the financial markets used to stabilize the price of a bunch of important commodities like grains and pork, which provided a diverse enough economy to stumble forwards despite nakedly corrupt and incompetent leadership. The question is, how much wealth will leave SF? If some startups leave, it’ll probably look more like Chicago. Clearly bankrupt, but still functioning to some degree. If most startups and their employees leave, it’ll be the Detroit route for SF.
- dpoochieni 6y ago
  Funny how those 3 cities are similarly managed politcially speaking.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    If you’re trying to go for a trite left vs. right comment, I’d like to point out that a lot of the cities that people in CA are moving to are also managed by Democrats. The nature of current US geographic politics means that most cities will be run by a very specific party, both the well run and the poorly run ones. This is one of those situations that escapes easy and convenient narratives, especially ones that happen to support a partisan side.
- pengaru 6y ago
  "If most startups and their employees leave, it’ll be the Detroit route for SF." News flash: SF only relatively recently became a startup hub with the web 2.0 and smartphone/apps eras and the advent of free shuttle buses to the likes of Google/FB. If the startups and their employees leave, it'll be slightly more like the diverse and more affordable SF that it previously was. If you honestly think it's the Detroit route for SF should most startups and their employees vacate, you are horribly misinformed. There's a practically unlimited number of people hoping SF prices fall enough for them to move back and/or buy property there. And it has absolutely nothing to do with the startup scene. If most the tech people moved out of SF I'd be far more interested in living there myself. The startup/tech monoculture has ruined the city in many ways.
  - phobosanomaly 6y ago
    The romantic East Coast City on the West Coast. Yep. People will always come to San Francisco for the same reason they go to North Park, San Diego or Silver Lake, Los Angeles.
  - vecinu 6y ago
    You really have to explain this to me because I'm leaving SF now even though I could save 50% off my current market rate rent if I move to a new place. What am I missing that I haven't seen in the last 6 years? I've walked/biked the city hundreds of times up and down from GGB to Stonestown and Dogpatch. Visited every nook and cranny of the city, tried living in different neighborhoods and I have always been sorely disappointed by the rampant crime and homelessness. I made life-long friends, attended tens of meetups from hiking, to biking and tech. Tasted food from all over the world, sailed on the bay, saw all the touristy and local spots. Day-tripped all over the bay and hours in every direction. Got an amazing workplace experience that is unlikely to be rivaled anywhere else in the world. Yet, I can't ignore it forever, I end up driving through downtown to get to Sausalito or eating at a nice restaurant while this person decides I am a demon and begins screaming at me while menacingly coming towards me. I had my bike stolen from my garage, my car window broken and been threatened by a random person on the street. You really think most people haven't had enough of this? I tried my best to love SF despite all of it's serious problems but after all these years it got to me and I have to leave, no matter how cheap it would be to stay.

ashtonkem 6y ago

Chicago and Detroit also look pretty different economically. Detroit was overbuilt and depended too heavily on car manufacturing, which left it vulnerable to collapse. Chicago meanwhile is still a pretty decent sized transit hub, and it has the financial markets used to stabilize the price of a bunch of important commodities like grains and pork, which provided a diverse enough economy to stumble forwards despite nakedly corrupt and incompetent leadership. The question is, how much wealth will leave SF? If some startups leave, it’ll probably look more like Chicago. Clearly bankrupt, but still functioning to some degree. If most startups and their employees leave, it’ll be the Detroit route for SF.

dpoochieni 6y ago
Funny how those 3 cities are similarly managed politcially speaking.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  If you’re trying to go for a trite left vs. right comment, I’d like to point out that a lot of the cities that people in CA are moving to are also managed by Democrats. The nature of current US geographic politics means that most cities will be run by a very specific party, both the well run and the poorly run ones. This is one of those situations that escapes easy and convenient narratives, especially ones that happen to support a partisan side.
pengaru 6y ago
"If most startups and their employees leave, it’ll be the Detroit route for SF." News flash: SF only relatively recently became a startup hub with the web 2.0 and smartphone/apps eras and the advent of free shuttle buses to the likes of Google/FB. If the startups and their employees leave, it'll be slightly more like the diverse and more affordable SF that it previously was. If you honestly think it's the Detroit route for SF should most startups and their employees vacate, you are horribly misinformed. There's a practically unlimited number of people hoping SF prices fall enough for them to move back and/or buy property there. And it has absolutely nothing to do with the startup scene. If most the tech people moved out of SF I'd be far more interested in living there myself. The startup/tech monoculture has ruined the city in many ways.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  The romantic East Coast City on the West Coast. Yep. People will always come to San Francisco for the same reason they go to North Park, San Diego or Silver Lake, Los Angeles.
- vecinu 6y ago
  You really have to explain this to me because I'm leaving SF now even though I could save 50% off my current market rate rent if I move to a new place. What am I missing that I haven't seen in the last 6 years? I've walked/biked the city hundreds of times up and down from GGB to Stonestown and Dogpatch. Visited every nook and cranny of the city, tried living in different neighborhoods and I have always been sorely disappointed by the rampant crime and homelessness. I made life-long friends, attended tens of meetups from hiking, to biking and tech. Tasted food from all over the world, sailed on the bay, saw all the touristy and local spots. Day-tripped all over the bay and hours in every direction. Got an amazing workplace experience that is unlikely to be rivaled anywhere else in the world. Yet, I can't ignore it forever, I end up driving through downtown to get to Sausalito or eating at a nice restaurant while this person decides I am a demon and begins screaming at me while menacingly coming towards me. I had my bike stolen from my garage, my car window broken and been threatened by a random person on the street. You really think most people haven't had enough of this? I tried my best to love SF despite all of it's serious problems but after all these years it got to me and I have to leave, no matter how cheap it would be to stay.