That's not my point, though - perhaps I didn't word it clearly. I'm not saying this event can't or won't happen, I'm questioning the claim (maybe I'm misinterp

That's not my point, though - perhaps I didn't word it clearly. I'm not saying this event can't or won't happen, I'm questioning the claim (maybe I'm misinterpreting the article?) that we can accurately forecast the likelihood of it happening, even though it's never happened.