Isn't that kind of the same thing? By crossing the river, he's now - irrevocably - throwing the "civil war" die. After that point, one of two things will happen

Isn't that kind of the same thing? By crossing the river, he's now - irrevocably - throwing the "civil war" die. After that point, one of two things will happen: he either wins the civil war, or loses and dies/is exiled. Basically, "the gamble is in motion", starting then. There's no turning back. I may be misunderstanding your point, though.