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They would actually argue the same thing. Certain events are impossible to predict. Other events are not. That’s part of the beauty of the problem. You need t
by cl42 6y ago
They would actually argue the same thing. Certain events are impossible to predict.
Other events are not.
That’s part of the beauty of the problem. You need to be able to pick the right events to predict and ensure the event is well-defined enough to actually test. Your own examples of why this wouldn’t work are exactly what they discuss as the problem... Eventually a lot of forecasts are correct; what governments, companies, and leaders need are forecasts that are time bound, as that’s how they plan.
- trishankkarthik 6y agoShow me the money: did they warn about COVID-19 way BEFORE it be came a problem, or did they not? If not, why should we take them seriously? It is easy to prognosticate AFTER the fact.
- _jahh 6y agonot seeing one crisis doesn't mean they aren't better than chance. Also do you know that they didn't make some accurate prediction of XX% of a pandemic that was born out in this situation? No one is claiming to have a literal crystal ball.
- jacques_chester 6y agoThis argument relies on the nirvana fallacy. "You are not perfectly clairvoyant, therefore prediction is worthless". I recall, but cannot locate, that questions related to the outbreak of trans-species respiratory illnesses from China have been canvassed in the past. It does appear that the US intelligence community expected a pandemic to emerge: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/analysis-yes-people-did-foresee-this-pandemic-happening/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/analysis-yes-people-d...