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This is insightful. My speculative impression is that the phenomenon you describe does have an impact on the real economy and that the difference is primarily o

by rory 6y ago

This is insightful. My speculative impression is that the phenomenon you describe does have an impact on the real economy and that the difference is primarily one of perception and information. People in the past were also at great risk of job automation, regional economic decline, etc. etc., but didn't seem to stress them and try to hedge for them as much. I could be wrong though.

lotsofpulp 6y ago
I also wonder how much fear is simply due to having access to more data, and how much is kind of a feedback loop due to actions stemming from that fear causing even more fear. But 2 parameters that are different than the past: 1) The rate of change of job destruction from automation and outsourcing to up and coming countries may not be the same over all time periods. If it happens slowly enough, then it may not be perceived by people and it may only have a negligible economic effect if the obviated people are able to be put to use elsewhere. But with computers and mobile high speed internet and GPS, you can roll out products that obviate entire fields within years if not months. Email/Calendars/Online Shopping/Travel Search/Reviews/Search Engines/Online Auctions/Craigslist/Real Estate/low cost index funds have all laid waste to enormous numbers of people's professions or lowered the barrier to entry heavily. The younger generation has no or much lower demand for travel agents, secretaries, stock brokers, real estate agents, journalists, etc. 2) The birthrate in the past pretty much guaranteed growth. If many people have 3 and 4 children, then growing demand and hence growing growth is basically built into the system. But what happens if people start having 0, 1, and 2 children? And they're all utilizing databases and internet connections to cut out numerous middlemen that their numerous parents and grandparents needed to use?

by rory 6y ago

lotsofpulp 6y ago

I also wonder how much fear is simply due to having access to more data, and how much is kind of a feedback loop due to actions stemming from that fear causing even more fear. But 2 parameters that are different than the past: 1) The rate of change of job destruction from automation and outsourcing to up and coming countries may not be the same over all time periods. If it happens slowly enough, then it may not be perceived by people and it may only have a negligible economic effect if the obviated people are able to be put to use elsewhere. But with computers and mobile high speed internet and GPS, you can roll out products that obviate entire fields within years if not months. Email/Calendars/Online Shopping/Travel Search/Reviews/Search Engines/Online Auctions/Craigslist/Real Estate/low cost index funds have all laid waste to enormous numbers of people's professions or lowered the barrier to entry heavily. The younger generation has no or much lower demand for travel agents, secretaries, stock brokers, real estate agents, journalists, etc. 2) The birthrate in the past pretty much guaranteed growth. If many people have 3 and 4 children, then growing demand and hence growing growth is basically built into the system. But what happens if people start having 0, 1, and 2 children? And they're all utilizing databases and internet connections to cut out numerous middlemen that their numerous parents and grandparents needed to use?