3 ms·

On the one hand, it's a bit of a cyclical argument - The only thing holding together social order is social order. On the other, the same is true of anything wh

On the one hand, it's a bit of a cyclical argument - The only thing holding together social order is social order. On the other, the same is true of anything which is relied upon on for life and dependent on ongoing financial exchange - Food, water, housing (if you rent). If a lot of excess capital suddenly flooded into those markets and gobbled up stock/pushed up demand, joe average could be priced out. All kinds of chaos manifests when that happens. Look at nations that experienced hyperinflation for examples of how it might go. What's not so clear is what might prompt it to happen.

keeganpoppen 6y ago
yeah that's the kind of reasoning that makes me feel better about it-- it's not really clear what kind of shock i would really be expecting to happen in the course of ordinary civilization that would cause this sort of run on life support / life-essential stuff that would also not itself be a bigger cause for concern than the system imploding (e.g. a proletariat uprising or world war would do the trick, but would be a bigger deal than the resultant economic shock alone)
- ljosifov 6y ago
  You are very much right in thinking this. I lived through collapse and dissolution of one state, civil war, disintegration, and (belated) birth of a new state, with its own currency. The monetary aspect (hyperinflation in the old, change of currency in the new) is only a small part of that. You are correct - in that scenario, there are other things to tend to, more urgent. I also witnessed that gold did not replace the collapsing currency. Other, non-collapsing currencies took on that role. USD is safe and sound for as long US is safe and sound. The fiat currency is creation of the state. In collapse, I'd say causality goes 99% state->fiat. Only a small (2nd or 3rd order) effect in the opposite direction. For the parent - "Hyperinflation – It’s More Than Just a Monetary Phenomenon" by pragcap.com https://www.pragcap.com/hyperinflation-its-more-than-just-a-monetary-phenomenon/ https://www.pragcap.com/hyperinflation-its-more-than-just-a-... reads right for me. Even general inflation (= increase in P/y) does not necessarily follow from the exchange equation (M V = P y) and money growth (M). There are other possibilities too, examples discussed in https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2011/05/14/money-growth-does-not-cause-inflation/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2011/05/14/money-gr.... To end on a more upbeat note: I also witnessed the hyperinflation tamed, the economy booming, without seemingly much effort and in short period of time. Looking back, I think the most important part is the right diagnosis: where is it coming from. Otherwise the cures end up worsening the disease.

keeganpoppen 6y ago

yeah that's the kind of reasoning that makes me feel better about it-- it's not really clear what kind of shock i would really be expecting to happen in the course of ordinary civilization that would cause this sort of run on life support / life-essential stuff that would also not itself be a bigger cause for concern than the system imploding (e.g. a proletariat uprising or world war would do the trick, but would be a bigger deal than the resultant economic shock alone)

ljosifov 6y ago
You are very much right in thinking this. I lived through collapse and dissolution of one state, civil war, disintegration, and (belated) birth of a new state, with its own currency. The monetary aspect (hyperinflation in the old, change of currency in the new) is only a small part of that. You are correct - in that scenario, there are other things to tend to, more urgent. I also witnessed that gold did not replace the collapsing currency. Other, non-collapsing currencies took on that role. USD is safe and sound for as long US is safe and sound. The fiat currency is creation of the state. In collapse, I'd say causality goes 99% state->fiat. Only a small (2nd or 3rd order) effect in the opposite direction. For the parent - "Hyperinflation – It’s More Than Just a Monetary Phenomenon" by pragcap.com https://www.pragcap.com/hyperinflation-its-more-than-just-a-monetary-phenomenon/ https://www.pragcap.com/hyperinflation-its-more-than-just-a-... reads right for me. Even general inflation (= increase in P/y) does not necessarily follow from the exchange equation (M V = P y) and money growth (M). There are other possibilities too, examples discussed in https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2011/05/14/money-growth-does-not-cause-inflation/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2011/05/14/money-gr.... To end on a more upbeat note: I also witnessed the hyperinflation tamed, the economy booming, without seemingly much effort and in short period of time. Looking back, I think the most important part is the right diagnosis: where is it coming from. Otherwise the cures end up worsening the disease.