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> forecasts a future where streaming companies slowly increase their prices as bad as the cable television companies of yore. Seems like this all has to do wit
by dcolkitt 6y ago
> forecasts a future where streaming companies slowly increase their prices as bad as the cable television companies of yore.
Seems like this all has to do with how fungible consumers' preference for media is. If the viewers have to see the newest Disney film or the most recent season of a hit sitcom, then those who own the content can extract their pound of flesh. When a media property is strong enough that consumers demand it by name, it's a monopoly product with monopoly pricing power.
But if consumers show even a little flexibility, that puts drastic downward pressure on media prices. "We don't have This is Us... but we do have a very cheap back catalog of Grey's Anatomy that we think you might like just as much..." Now content becomes a commodity, and margins become razor thin. The surplus gets re-allocated and divided between cheaper consumer prices and those who own the algorithm. Netflix became the biggest media company in the world based on the strength of its algorithm not its media property.
One reason that cable company prices got out of control is because there was no effective mechanism for content fungibility. Higher prices were driven by ever higher carrier fees. If Comcast gets in a standoff with Bravo, it will always lose. A large segment of consumers demand Bravo, and Comcast had no way to deliver then any sort of satisfactory alternative. So carriers fees marches higher, which then in turn meant that consumer prices marched higher, since the cable companies were a monopoly themselves.
In the near-term the specific countours of the landscape and machinations of the business may push prices up or down. But in the long-run, algorithms are only getting better. There's no countervailing force making media branding stronger over time. The end-result has to be that the cost of media content asymptotically approaches its marginal cost: zero. Or more likely content just become a subsidized subsidiary of the tech gatekeepers that own the algorithms.