A Nobel prize is often rewarded for work that was done a decade or more ago. That alone makes it difficult to anticipate winning it. Also, there will usually be

A Nobel prize is often rewarded for work that was done a decade or more ago. That alone makes it difficult to anticipate winning it. Also, there will usually be many worthy candidates. On top of that, the list of nominees is kept secret. So no, I guess that most Nobel laureates did not expect the prize when they got it.