4 ms·
The Brazilian city of Manaus is an example of where restrictions were ignored by ~50% of the population (based on mobile phone data), resulting in approximately
by pcrh 6y ago
The Brazilian city of Manaus is an example of where restrictions were ignored by ~50% of the population (based on mobile phone data), resulting in approximately 66% of people becoming infected before herd immunity started to have an impact [0]. With an estimated infection:fatality rate for the US at ~0.5% (all ages) this would mean nearly 1.2 million deaths in the US.
[0] COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v...
- refurb 6y agoOk, but OP said 10-20x higher, so with the current deaths at ~250,000, that would be 2.5M to 5M deaths. And, I wouldn’t necessarily extrapolate what happened in one city to what would happen across an entire country. So yeah, more deaths, no doubt. But 10-20x more? Seems unsupported.
- pcrh 6y ago2.5 million is only 2.08 X 1.2 million. In situations such as this, the order of magnitude is often the best one can estimate.