3 ms·
>pretty much business as usual. Not only is it not actually business as usual, as other commenters remark, but this rate of death is despite the severe measure
by pcrh 6y ago
>pretty much business as usual.
Not only is it not actually business as usual, as other commenters remark, but this rate of death is despite the severe measures taken.
Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher.
- wk_end 6y ago> Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher. Is that based on anything? I’m skeptical - many places that took more severe measures did worse than places that took less severe measures (both within the US and internationally), and nowhere ended up with death rates per capita an order of magnitude larger than what we’re seeing in the US.
- withinboredom 6y agoI have a hunch (based on family and friends in the US) that the US is the only country that the population did its best to not take the measures seriously. Here in the Netherlands masks aren’t required in stores, but people still wear them anyway. Same with Sweden and France when I visited there over the summer. (Though France does require it in stores IIRC).
- cr1895 6y ago>Here in the Netherlands masks aren’t required in stores, but people still wear them anyway. I really disagree with your observations based on living in NL and visiting Sweden several times over the last few months. These are two very poor examples of countries where mask-wearing is prioritized and accepted. The Dutch government only a week or two ago "urgently advised" wearing masks indoors, and even with that advice in my own experience a majority of people are not wearing one. Before that, hardly anyone wore a mask indoors. I've traveled to Antwerp a few times for work in the past few months, and the prevalence of masks there compared to NL is striking. And Sweden generally has been quite averse to wearing masks in public...it's not ever been mandated anywhere, not even on transit like in NL. https://www.thelocal.se/20200831/sweden-remains-an-outlier-despite-nordic-u-turn-on-face-masks https://www.thelocal.se/20200831/sweden-remains-an-outlier-d...
- withinboredom 6y agoI think it depends on where you go. At AH in our neighborhood, over 50% of people have a mask on. I went to Jumbo in another neighborhood today and no one had a mask on.
- refurb 6y agoI'm not sure that's true. Mortality is very high in the elderly, so if it went tearing through the rest of the population, you'd expect more deaths, but nowhere close to what you see in the 60+ old age group.
- pcrh 6y agoThe Brazilian city of Manaus is an example of where restrictions were ignored by ~50% of the population (based on mobile phone data), resulting in approximately 66% of people becoming infected before herd immunity started to have an impact [0]. With an estimated infection:fatality rate for the US at ~0.5% (all ages) this would mean nearly 1.2 million deaths in the US. [0] COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v...
- refurb 6y agoOk, but OP said 10-20x higher, so with the current deaths at ~250,000, that would be 2.5M to 5M deaths. And, I wouldn’t necessarily extrapolate what happened in one city to what would happen across an entire country. So yeah, more deaths, no doubt. But 10-20x more? Seems unsupported.
- pcrh 6y ago2.5 million is only 2.08 X 1.2 million. In situations such as this, the order of magnitude is often the best one can estimate.