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29% chance, actually. Washington Post had a piece that mentioned this today. "On Election Day that year, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gave Trump a 29 percent cha
by sciurus 6y ago
29% chance, actually. Washington Post had a piece that mentioned this today.
"On Election Day that year, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning. This was a better likelihood than was reflected for Trump in a number of other forecasts, though it still amounted to just under a 1-in-3 chance he would win. The site’s Nate Silver wrote that there was a 1-in-10 chance that Trump would lose the popular vote and win an electoral college majority, which is of course what happened."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/12/how-think-about-trumps-chances-winning-reelection/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/12/how-think...