4 ms·

I predict none of those doomsday predictions will come to pass, and everything will be back to pre-covid levels soon enough (maybe 2-5 after the pandemic recede

I predict none of those doomsday predictions will come to pass, and everything will be back to pre-covid levels soon enough (maybe 2-5 after the pandemic recedes). In the meantime, the sector is in for a rough ride, yes. I don't have much more compelling arguments than you have, so time will tell!

pb7 6y ago
>maybe 2-5 after the pandemic recedes Months? Years?
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  I read aviation news sources weekly. Domestic air travel (inside national borders) will have various starts and stops due to corona. The worst-case is if the FAA rules something like jets must be 100% disinfected between flights, which could be $250,000 or more per leg. (That is the case for some drug-resistant TB patient flights.) But I'd estimate that international airline travel will take a year to start again after a vaccine is globally available, so in the area of 2 more years. I say globally because travellers were found to be skirting travel bans from China to the USA via legs to Africa and Canada. The international airline industry really doesn't have any corona answers at this time. A gradual increase in air travel is unavoidable since unpickling airliners will take a considerable amount of time - each jet will take about a calendar week to prepare for inspection, consisting of one man-month of work. If problems are found, then longer. (Airliners aren't designed to sit for an extended period of time, so there's all kinds of moisture, landing gear/tires and corrosion issues that are possible. Big planes create big problems.) Besides planes, another issue that will need to be addressed is that pilots need a variety of recurring training and medical certificates, so that would cause a spike in demand that can't be met after a sudden re-opening. Currently, the FAA has various modified rules and extensions, but those are temporary and the FAA is loathe to allow gaps in airmen standards. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-10-08/faa-continues-extension-expansion-covid-relief https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/20... Source: commercially-rated airplane pilot.
- norswap 6y ago
  Sorry, years.

pb7 6y ago

>maybe 2-5 after the pandemic recedes Months? Years?

redis_mlc 6y ago
I read aviation news sources weekly. Domestic air travel (inside national borders) will have various starts and stops due to corona. The worst-case is if the FAA rules something like jets must be 100% disinfected between flights, which could be $250,000 or more per leg. (That is the case for some drug-resistant TB patient flights.) But I'd estimate that international airline travel will take a year to start again after a vaccine is globally available, so in the area of 2 more years. I say globally because travellers were found to be skirting travel bans from China to the USA via legs to Africa and Canada. The international airline industry really doesn't have any corona answers at this time. A gradual increase in air travel is unavoidable since unpickling airliners will take a considerable amount of time - each jet will take about a calendar week to prepare for inspection, consisting of one man-month of work. If problems are found, then longer. (Airliners aren't designed to sit for an extended period of time, so there's all kinds of moisture, landing gear/tires and corrosion issues that are possible. Big planes create big problems.) Besides planes, another issue that will need to be addressed is that pilots need a variety of recurring training and medical certificates, so that would cause a spike in demand that can't be met after a sudden re-opening. Currently, the FAA has various modified rules and extensions, but those are temporary and the FAA is loathe to allow gaps in airmen standards. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-10-08/faa-continues-extension-expansion-covid-relief https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/20... Source: commercially-rated airplane pilot.
norswap 6y ago
Sorry, years.