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These calls for a certain sort of action are very hard to parse properly and assess, even if we could all agree on an assessment mechanism (itself also almost i

These calls for a certain sort of action are very hard to parse properly and assess, even if we could all agree on an assessment mechanism (itself also almost impossible). I’m personally skeptical of these minority-report PhD calls to action because I think they prescribe a direction rather than raising the actual things to be considered by local jurisdictions to make a good decision. And it’s really hard to even get agreement on what to consider in order to decide! For instance, a strict utilitarian assessment needs to consider (and opine) on the following questions: * Does full lockdown, which it is agreed would reduce COVID deaths, increase or reduce net deaths over the same period in all cause mortality (poverty, depression, abuse, etc)? * Does full lockdown increase or reduce net deaths over some longer period of time for all cause mortality? Then we get to the really hard stuff, in two directions: first, cultural: * Will full lockdown + contact tracing be implementable in the US / UK? * If so, are the privacy and government centralization harms worth the benefit? * If not, are the privacy, government centralization, and mortality related harms / benefits worth the tradeoff? Second, in ‘softer’ terms: * Will lockdown disadvantage certain members of society? (see the “K shaped recover” for lots on this. * Are those harms short or long term, and are they worth the lifesaving that (may/will/definitely will/probably won’t) result? Again, this is all presuming we agree to be utilitarian about this, (which I am not particularly inclined to be personally). And, crucially, the answers to these questions is going to vary based on how much control a given government has right now, how much trust citizens have in their governments, how good the social safety net is, how protected / enforceable the borders surrounding the lockdown are — it’s impossible to get a global answer here.

verdverm 6y ago
There are constitutional questions as well. The US Constitution has no clauses which allow for its suspension in an emergency. Executive branches have some ability for short periods of time. There are some instances & cases (like the Japanese internment camps in the US during WW2) that are interesting to consider in context with this.
- vessenes 6y ago
  Yeah exactly. I think it’s interesting to compare and contrast the two countries that have done best with this: China and New Zealand. China is high control and high trust (mostly) and well controlled border , New Zealand is like mid to low control but very high trust, and it has a perfectly defined and controlled border. US is (broadly) low control, low trust, net importer with large land borders and neighboring countries by sea, so it’s a much harder problem even if you had consistent messaging and planning from the top.
  - verdverm 6y ago
    Do you trust the data from China?
    - vessenes 6y ago
      my business partners in china report day to day life is basically mask free, and when there is a reported outbreak there is massive testing and contact tracing. Youtubers in china show that same story in street footage; so on balance yes, I think it’s generally accurate.

verdverm 6y ago

There are constitutional questions as well. The US Constitution has no clauses which allow for its suspension in an emergency. Executive branches have some ability for short periods of time. There are some instances & cases (like the Japanese internment camps in the US during WW2) that are interesting to consider in context with this.

vessenes 6y ago
Yeah exactly. I think it’s interesting to compare and contrast the two countries that have done best with this: China and New Zealand. China is high control and high trust (mostly) and well controlled border , New Zealand is like mid to low control but very high trust, and it has a perfectly defined and controlled border. US is (broadly) low control, low trust, net importer with large land borders and neighboring countries by sea, so it’s a much harder problem even if you had consistent messaging and planning from the top.
- verdverm 6y ago
  Do you trust the data from China?
  - vessenes 6y ago
    my business partners in china report day to day life is basically mask free, and when there is a reported outbreak there is massive testing and contact tracing. Youtubers in china show that same story in street footage; so on balance yes, I think it’s generally accurate.