4 ms·

Deploying IPv6 is nice, but it doesn't impact the value of IPv4 at all. Any internet service you want to be widely available will need to be dual-stack as long

by mike_d 6y ago

Deploying IPv6 is nice, but it doesn't impact the value of IPv4 at all. Any internet service you want to be widely available will need to be dual-stack as long as we are alive.

wmf 6y ago
If (eventually) each service needs an IPv4 address, that implies that there isn't a shortage and thus the value of addresses would be near zero.
Animats 6y ago
Maybe not. Google says their traffic is now at 30% IPv6, and climbing at 5%/year.[1] Worldwide, Google is undercounting, because they are blocked in China. Google claims that China is 0.27% IPv6, but actually China is around 55%, according to APNIC. Policy goal in China is all IPv6 by 2025. [1] https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html
- mprovost 6y ago
  So it's taken 25 years to get to ~30% adoption. And a few years ago APNIC reported [0] that the rate was going down - I haven't found an updated report. In 2005 the US government mandated that all their computers be v6 connected by 2008. [1] This year they updated the mandate to 80% by 2025. [2] I learned networking in college in 1996 and I remember v6 coming up but so far I've never had to use it and chances are that I'll be able to retire still getting away with only working with v4. [0] https://blog.apnic.net/2018/05/21/what-drives-ipv6-deployment/ https://blog.apnic.net/2018/05/21/what-drives-ipv6-deploymen... [1] https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/omb/memoranda/fy2005/m05-22.pdf https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/omb/memoranda/fy... [2] https://www.cio.gov/assets/resources/internet-protocol-version6-draft.pdf https://www.cio.gov/assets/resources/internet-protocol-versi...
  - zajio1am 6y ago
    Considering that World IPv6 Launch was 2012-06-06 and nothing really happened before, it makes more sense to say that it has taken 8 years to get to ~30% adoption.
    - mprovost 6y ago
      I don't think you get to roll back the odometer and start counting again just because nobody adopted a technology from the start. That's not to say that adoption won't take off at some point - a lot of technologies experience exponential growth after a slow start. But the longer it takes to get started, the bigger the risk that something better will come along.

by mike_d 6y ago

Deploying IPv6 is nice, but it doesn't impact the value of IPv4 at all. Any internet service you want to be widely available will need to be dual-stack as long as we are alive.

wmf 6y ago

If (eventually) each service needs an IPv4 address, that implies that there isn't a shortage and thus the value of addresses would be near zero.

Animats 6y ago

Maybe not. Google says their traffic is now at 30% IPv6, and climbing at 5%/year.[1] Worldwide, Google is undercounting, because they are blocked in China. Google claims that China is 0.27% IPv6, but actually China is around 55%, according to APNIC. Policy goal in China is all IPv6 by 2025. [1] https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html

mprovost 6y ago
So it's taken 25 years to get to ~30% adoption. And a few years ago APNIC reported [0] that the rate was going down - I haven't found an updated report. In 2005 the US government mandated that all their computers be v6 connected by 2008. [1] This year they updated the mandate to 80% by 2025. [2] I learned networking in college in 1996 and I remember v6 coming up but so far I've never had to use it and chances are that I'll be able to retire still getting away with only working with v4. [0] https://blog.apnic.net/2018/05/21/what-drives-ipv6-deployment/ https://blog.apnic.net/2018/05/21/what-drives-ipv6-deploymen... [1] https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/omb/memoranda/fy2005/m05-22.pdf https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/omb/memoranda/fy... [2] https://www.cio.gov/assets/resources/internet-protocol-version6-draft.pdf https://www.cio.gov/assets/resources/internet-protocol-versi...
- zajio1am 6y ago
  Considering that World IPv6 Launch was 2012-06-06 and nothing really happened before, it makes more sense to say that it has taken 8 years to get to ~30% adoption.
  - mprovost 6y ago
    I don't think you get to roll back the odometer and start counting again just because nobody adopted a technology from the start. That's not to say that adoption won't take off at some point - a lot of technologies experience exponential growth after a slow start. But the longer it takes to get started, the bigger the risk that something better will come along.