5 ms·

Poker is a high variance game. Aside from trying to get your money in while you think you've got an edge, you need to manage your bankroll through long periods

by dcl 6y ago

Poker is a high variance game. Aside from trying to get your money in while you think you've got an edge, you need to manage your bankroll through long periods of bad luck - make sure you're able to keep playing tomorrow, even if things go really bad today.

jacobwilliamroy 6y ago
The difference is that poker is a game but finance is real life: physical resources, actual human lives. To operate at the game level of abstraction is sociopathic.
- ufuft 6y ago
  If you're a poker professional, the game of poker and your finances are very closely related.
- Traster 6y ago
  There are plenty of poker players who play professionally and the bank roll management aspect of the game is an essential part of their job. Which is why at the highest level you'll find quite a complex ecosystem of players selling stakes in themselves to each other to lower the variance.
  - agustif 6y ago
    So the meta-game of poker is betting in your own competition as in buying shares on their possible (winning) stake. That sounds a cool story either for a Doccumentary or maybe a webapp to easily manage that on the lower ranks where informality and everyone knowing each other might not be true?
    - im3w1l 6y ago
      No, this is a misunderstanding. It's about balancing how much you invest in today's game with how much you invest in tomorrows game. Preventing an unlucky streak from wiping you out and all that.
- eru 6y ago
  When real lives are involved, even more so do we owe it to our stakeholders to model the situations as carefully as possible, and figure out what the mathematically optimal strategies are. Whether you apply the mathematical insights straight up is another question. But there's no excuse for being sloppy: 'Physical resources, actual human lives' deserve optimal play. A sentimentality that treats a single photogenic orphan as more important than the plight of many does not cut it.
  - jacobwilliamroy 6y ago
    Just try to keep a handle on reality. People who play games tend to have a pretty loose grasp on the real world. Especially people who play games with other people's money.
    - eru 6y ago
      > Just try to keep a handle on reality. Yes, that's important. And it's also important to always keep in mind the limitations of your models. (That's constantly on people's mind in finance already, by the way.) > People who play games tend to have a pretty loose grasp on the real world. Especially people who play games with other people's money. Citation needed, I guess?
      - jacobwilliamroy 6y ago
        People who play money games literally have no idea what they're doing or what the real consequences of their actions are. They trade in weapons, they fund the destruction of human habitats, they undermine governments to put the desires of a small minority over the needs of the many. Yes they've lost their damn minds. And when anyone points these things out, they complain and deny responsibility. "If I don't someone else will. Why is the government always on my ass trying to interfere?"
        eru 6y ago
        Are you talking about any one person in particular? This seems like a whole hodgepodge of complaints about some boogeyman? Eg for what it's worth, I've worked in finance on and off, and I can assure you that most people 'who play money games' do not 'trade in weapons'. Trading weapons is a fairly specialized niche, and your average stock trader has no clue about that niche, even if they wanted to get into that specific market. There might be other things wrong with people working in finance. But not all people you don't like engage in all the vices you don't like at the same time. Btw, I suspect most weapons trading is done to prop up governments, not to undermine them. (Even thought neither you nor me might find the governments in question very sympathetic.)
- PeterisP 6y ago
  Game theory is about making decisions in the face of uncertainty, especially as it applies to real life with high stakes. The core principles of game theory were developed and used for making specific military decisions in WW2 with actual lives at stake. Since game theory is a tool that allows you to make better decisions than the intuitive biases would nudge you otherwise, to operate at a game level of abstraction is not sociopathic but a necessity - if physical resources and actual human lives are at stake, abandoning such formal reasoning would be reckless and grossly negligent.

by dcl 6y ago

jacobwilliamroy 6y ago

The difference is that poker is a game but finance is real life: physical resources, actual human lives. To operate at the game level of abstraction is sociopathic.

ufuft 6y ago
If you're a poker professional, the game of poker and your finances are very closely related.
Traster 6y ago
There are plenty of poker players who play professionally and the bank roll management aspect of the game is an essential part of their job. Which is why at the highest level you'll find quite a complex ecosystem of players selling stakes in themselves to each other to lower the variance.
- agustif 6y ago
  So the meta-game of poker is betting in your own competition as in buying shares on their possible (winning) stake. That sounds a cool story either for a Doccumentary or maybe a webapp to easily manage that on the lower ranks where informality and everyone knowing each other might not be true?
  - im3w1l 6y ago
    No, this is a misunderstanding. It's about balancing how much you invest in today's game with how much you invest in tomorrows game. Preventing an unlucky streak from wiping you out and all that.
eru 6y ago
When real lives are involved, even more so do we owe it to our stakeholders to model the situations as carefully as possible, and figure out what the mathematically optimal strategies are. Whether you apply the mathematical insights straight up is another question. But there's no excuse for being sloppy: 'Physical resources, actual human lives' deserve optimal play. A sentimentality that treats a single photogenic orphan as more important than the plight of many does not cut it.
- jacobwilliamroy 6y ago
  Just try to keep a handle on reality. People who play games tend to have a pretty loose grasp on the real world. Especially people who play games with other people's money.
  - eru 6y ago
    > Just try to keep a handle on reality. Yes, that's important. And it's also important to always keep in mind the limitations of your models. (That's constantly on people's mind in finance already, by the way.) > People who play games tend to have a pretty loose grasp on the real world. Especially people who play games with other people's money. Citation needed, I guess?
    - jacobwilliamroy 6y ago
      People who play money games literally have no idea what they're doing or what the real consequences of their actions are. They trade in weapons, they fund the destruction of human habitats, they undermine governments to put the desires of a small minority over the needs of the many. Yes they've lost their damn minds. And when anyone points these things out, they complain and deny responsibility. "If I don't someone else will. Why is the government always on my ass trying to interfere?"
      - eru 6y ago
        Are you talking about any one person in particular? This seems like a whole hodgepodge of complaints about some boogeyman? Eg for what it's worth, I've worked in finance on and off, and I can assure you that most people 'who play money games' do not 'trade in weapons'. Trading weapons is a fairly specialized niche, and your average stock trader has no clue about that niche, even if they wanted to get into that specific market. There might be other things wrong with people working in finance. But not all people you don't like engage in all the vices you don't like at the same time. Btw, I suspect most weapons trading is done to prop up governments, not to undermine them. (Even thought neither you nor me might find the governments in question very sympathetic.)
PeterisP 6y ago
Game theory is about making decisions in the face of uncertainty, especially as it applies to real life with high stakes. The core principles of game theory were developed and used for making specific military decisions in WW2 with actual lives at stake. Since game theory is a tool that allows you to make better decisions than the intuitive biases would nudge you otherwise, to operate at a game level of abstraction is not sociopathic but a necessity - if physical resources and actual human lives are at stake, abandoning such formal reasoning would be reckless and grossly negligent.