5 ms·

I agree, this is one of those slow moving trends that you just don't see but has really large effects after decades of compounding. It used to be normal for com

by oramit 6y ago

I agree, this is one of those slow moving trends that you just don't see but has really large effects after decades of compounding. It used to be normal for companies to have much larger work forces and to in-source all tasks, even if they were not a core competency. Now the emphasis is on lean everything, to only focus on your niche, and outsource as much as possible. Remember IT departments? It's all been outsourced to the Cloud. I have two theories on this. One is that we simply have improved our management processes. The economy became more developed and you could realize real efficiency gains from outsourcing. From a pure GDP perspective - this was good. The second is more messy and i'm still working on it but it ties into a lot of macro issues. It used to be much easier start out with no experience, say as a janitor, and work your way up to a higher position in the same company. This was possible because it was all the same company. Now with outsourcing this is impossible, if you start as a janitor, the only thing you can do is maybe run the janitor company, but you won't ever become the CEO of the company whose office you clean. At the same time, you've made entry-level positions at the company harder to attain. The floor is no longer janitor, it is now junior developer (to take a software example). This is one of the reasons why I think there is such a bifurcation in our labor market. A college degree is now the minimum requirement to get your foot into the door. Again, it used to possible to start at the very bottom and work your way up but now there is a hard cap on growth unless you go the college route. I think this was a clever way for companies to also push costs onto employees. Training used to be a thing companies did but now it's basically been abandoned. Go spend your own money and get a degree before even talking to us is the attitude.

WalterBright 6y ago
On the other hand, it's never been easier to start a company and instantly reach a global market.
- WalterBright 6y ago
  Not only that, but you can draw collaborators from the entire world, and even get investment capital from the globe (like kickstarter, etc.). I remember when I wanted to sell in France, I had to find a French distributor, make a French version of the product, guess how many would sell there, ship a pile to the distributor, the distributor collects most of the money, and unsold merchandise is scrapped. If I didn't have a distributor, the merchandise was always getting hung up in customs, would disappear in the mail, would take 6 weeks to deliver, I'd get paid in dollary-doos that no bank would exchange, etc. Rinse, repeat for every country. Today, I ship all over the world via the internet for $0, have no stock, no scrap, no middlemen, get paid instantly, ship instantly, and the transaction cost is 1% for paypal and 3% for credit cards. Still have to pay taxes, though :-)
  - austinjp 6y ago
    > Today, I ship all over the world via the internet for $0, have no stock, no scrap, no middlemen, get paid instantly, ship instantly, and the transaction cost is 1% for paypal and 3% for credit cards. This all true, and empowering for those who have the relevant know-how and opportunities. However, these apparent efficiencies are built on the back of the factors that GP points out. Empowerment for some relies on structures that disempower others. Agency staff live precariously; the companies that use them have ever tighter margins, they are increasingly hollow shells that serve only to generate cash not to provide the security of employment. The convenience we appear to benefit from is an ever-thinner veneer that disguises deeper problems.
    - WalterBright 6y ago
      > the relevant know-how and opportunities I've seen many guides to doing this in the form of blogs. This is not hard information to come by.
      - austinjp 6y ago
        What separates the haves from the have-nots? It's not blogs.
        WalterBright 6y ago
        In America it's largely the choices people make. After all, school doesn't teach how to create a startup. But there are plenty of books and blogs on how to do it. All one needs is the get-up-and-go to take advantage of all the freely available information.
        austinjp 6y ago
        It's not a lack of "get-up-and-go" that perpetuates lack of opportunity. "All one needs"? You could gain some insights here by having a few conversations with people doing the sort of precarious contractor work that was mentioned previously. I doubt they're lacking elbow grease. There's also an implication that it's simply okay to let job security rot away, that people in precarious work should simply read a few blogs and retrain. I'm not convinced that it's a good plan to ignore creepingly pervasive employment insecurity.
bumby 6y ago
Capitalism is an exercise in specialization. The more advanced an economy, the more it relies on specialized skills which requires increased focus to be competitive. An interesting outcome is that is becomes more difficult to rise to high levels unless that is what you’re optimizing for early. Ironically, this creates the same pressure that makes high levels so competitive and potentially miserable

by oramit 6y ago

WalterBright 6y ago

On the other hand, it's never been easier to start a company and instantly reach a global market.

WalterBright 6y ago
Not only that, but you can draw collaborators from the entire world, and even get investment capital from the globe (like kickstarter, etc.). I remember when I wanted to sell in France, I had to find a French distributor, make a French version of the product, guess how many would sell there, ship a pile to the distributor, the distributor collects most of the money, and unsold merchandise is scrapped. If I didn't have a distributor, the merchandise was always getting hung up in customs, would disappear in the mail, would take 6 weeks to deliver, I'd get paid in dollary-doos that no bank would exchange, etc. Rinse, repeat for every country. Today, I ship all over the world via the internet for $0, have no stock, no scrap, no middlemen, get paid instantly, ship instantly, and the transaction cost is 1% for paypal and 3% for credit cards. Still have to pay taxes, though :-)
- austinjp 6y ago
  > Today, I ship all over the world via the internet for $0, have no stock, no scrap, no middlemen, get paid instantly, ship instantly, and the transaction cost is 1% for paypal and 3% for credit cards. This all true, and empowering for those who have the relevant know-how and opportunities. However, these apparent efficiencies are built on the back of the factors that GP points out. Empowerment for some relies on structures that disempower others. Agency staff live precariously; the companies that use them have ever tighter margins, they are increasingly hollow shells that serve only to generate cash not to provide the security of employment. The convenience we appear to benefit from is an ever-thinner veneer that disguises deeper problems.
  - WalterBright 6y ago
    > the relevant know-how and opportunities I've seen many guides to doing this in the form of blogs. This is not hard information to come by.
    - austinjp 6y ago
      What separates the haves from the have-nots? It's not blogs.
      - WalterBright 6y ago
        In America it's largely the choices people make. After all, school doesn't teach how to create a startup. But there are plenty of books and blogs on how to do it. All one needs is the get-up-and-go to take advantage of all the freely available information.
        austinjp 6y ago
        It's not a lack of "get-up-and-go" that perpetuates lack of opportunity. "All one needs"? You could gain some insights here by having a few conversations with people doing the sort of precarious contractor work that was mentioned previously. I doubt they're lacking elbow grease. There's also an implication that it's simply okay to let job security rot away, that people in precarious work should simply read a few blogs and retrain. I'm not convinced that it's a good plan to ignore creepingly pervasive employment insecurity.

bumby 6y ago

Capitalism is an exercise in specialization. The more advanced an economy, the more it relies on specialized skills which requires increased focus to be competitive. An interesting outcome is that is becomes more difficult to rise to high levels unless that is what you’re optimizing for early. Ironically, this creates the same pressure that makes high levels so competitive and potentially miserable