5 ms·

I own a Tesla model 3 with the V3 hardware and FSD package. They are not even close to being able to do what Waymo does.

by dbt00 6y ago

nickik 6y ago
And Waymo is not close to what Tesla does. Different strategy coming at it from different sides. The question is not, who has the first taxi on any public road anywhere, but who first can launch 10000 of autonomous taxis and make money. Waymo so far is just a gigantic money fire, and even if you assume their autonomy works, many people have made arguments that the businesses case is really not very solid at all. Waymo has incredibly few ours driven on public roads outside of a limited area. Self driving is mostly a software problem, and to solve general driving, a gigantic learning problem. How is gone solve that first and scale it, is open. I would put my money on Tesla, and I wouldn't invest in Waymo if I could.
- dmode 6y ago
  I am also a Tesla owner, and you can talk to Tesla owners and get their perspective on Tesla's autopilot capabilities. I have owned Tesla for 5 years, and also have a 2018 Model 3. Tesla is nowhere close to full self driving capability, and cannot still handle basic uses cases like driving on well marked freeways within lanes without randomly phantom braking.
  - nickik 6y ago
    Payoff to investment and work is not always linear. In something this difficult I going with the approach I believe in. I'm not gone change my opinion on that because of a specific problem of the current version. Maybe if Waymo demonstrates that they can drive on and off all major highways in the world without hd mapping of them. Then i might believe they are ahead.
    - ra7 6y ago
      > Maybe if Waymo demonstrates that they can drive on and off all major highways in the world without hd mapping of them. Then i might believe they are ahead. So, can Tesla do this right now? Also, why should Waymo not use HD mapping when they clearly have the ability to do it? Seems like a weird criteria.
      - nickik 6y ago
        Because you can't map the whole constantly changing world. And its highly questionable that their mapping can actually deal with all the incredibly complexity of the real world. I'm going with the better process, not the better demo.
        ra7 6y ago
        > And its highly questionable that their mapping can actually deal with all the incredibly complexity of the real world. Funny, I have the same the opinion of Tesla’s camera-only approach. > I'm going with the better process, not the better demo. A “demo” with 20 million autonomous miles clocked vs 12.2 miles. The “process” that has so far yielded very little in terms of actual autonomous driving if you ignore the FSD marketing speak.
- almost_usual 6y ago
  > The question is not, who has the first taxi on any public road anywhere, but who first can launch 10000 of autonomous taxis and make money. Probably Waymo > Waymo so far is just a gigantic money fire, and even if you assume their autonomy works, many people have made arguments that the businesses case is really not very solid at all. Waymo has incredibly few ours driven on public roads outside of a limited area. and Alphabet / Google is a money printing machine, if they get to self driving first it’s pretty much over for their competition. > many people have made arguments that the businesses case is really not very solid at all So self driving technology isn’t a solid business model? Why are so many companies trying to do this? What’s stopping Waymo from patenting this after they get to an acceptable threshold and selling it to their competitors?
  - nickik 6y ago
    > Probably Waymo Waymo has spend 10+ years and they can now barley driven in possibly the easiest location in the world, a location where they have logged millions of miles. Waymo focuses on the easiest thing first. The technology on their car is incredibly expensive both now and to scale it to 10k, 100k, 1M vehicles is a huge challenge, both capital and manufacturing. They are like a rocket company who says, we have this amazing air-frame, launch pad, software we only need to figure out the engine, then we are gone make money. I place my bets on the company that has million of cars on the road, seeing every corner case possible in every location, because that is the real challenge to overcome if you actually want to have many 1000s of cars in every city. Plus the sensor suit and compute power in a Tesla maybe cost a few 1000$, scalable to 10s of millions of vehicles. I don't think either of them is really close to self driving, but at least Tesla is focusing on the right problem with a scalable solution. > What’s stopping Waymo from patenting this after they get to an acceptable threshold and selling it to their competitors? If their technology actually works they would want to dominate the self driving taxi market and not sell it to the competition. Their competitors would then have to install this whole Waymo hardware suit, making it not very practical for OEMs and normal cars. Uber or Lyft might be costumers, but why would you sell it to them if you could just replace them. Waymo has burned money for 10+ years, signing a few licensing deal for a slightly better Mobile Eye will not give the return they are hoping for.
- tylerhou 6y ago
  > I would put my money on Tesla I'll bet you $1000 Tesla won't be the first to develop self-driving that is at least as good as humans (wrt. accident rate) in all weather and terrain conditions. Hell, I don't even think they'll be the third.
- adrr 6y ago
  I own a Tesla model 3 with hw3 and FSD. Tesla is no where close to self driving. I’d settle for smart summon that doesn’t run over curbs or drive on the wrong side of the lane. I’ve given up on navigate on autopilot.

I own a Tesla model 3 with the V3 hardware and FSD package. They are not even close to being able to do what Waymo does.

by dbt00 6y ago

I own a Tesla model 3 with the V3 hardware and FSD package. They are not even close to being able to do what Waymo does.

nickik 6y ago

And Waymo is not close to what Tesla does. Different strategy coming at it from different sides. The question is not, who has the first taxi on any public road anywhere, but who first can launch 10000 of autonomous taxis and make money. Waymo so far is just a gigantic money fire, and even if you assume their autonomy works, many people have made arguments that the businesses case is really not very solid at all. Waymo has incredibly few ours driven on public roads outside of a limited area. Self driving is mostly a software problem, and to solve general driving, a gigantic learning problem. How is gone solve that first and scale it, is open. I would put my money on Tesla, and I wouldn't invest in Waymo if I could.

dmode 6y ago
I am also a Tesla owner, and you can talk to Tesla owners and get their perspective on Tesla's autopilot capabilities. I have owned Tesla for 5 years, and also have a 2018 Model 3. Tesla is nowhere close to full self driving capability, and cannot still handle basic uses cases like driving on well marked freeways within lanes without randomly phantom braking.
- nickik 6y ago
  Payoff to investment and work is not always linear. In something this difficult I going with the approach I believe in. I'm not gone change my opinion on that because of a specific problem of the current version. Maybe if Waymo demonstrates that they can drive on and off all major highways in the world without hd mapping of them. Then i might believe they are ahead.
  - ra7 6y ago
    > Maybe if Waymo demonstrates that they can drive on and off all major highways in the world without hd mapping of them. Then i might believe they are ahead. So, can Tesla do this right now? Also, why should Waymo not use HD mapping when they clearly have the ability to do it? Seems like a weird criteria.
    - nickik 6y ago
      Because you can't map the whole constantly changing world. And its highly questionable that their mapping can actually deal with all the incredibly complexity of the real world. I'm going with the better process, not the better demo.
      - ra7 6y ago
        > And its highly questionable that their mapping can actually deal with all the incredibly complexity of the real world. Funny, I have the same the opinion of Tesla’s camera-only approach. > I'm going with the better process, not the better demo. A “demo” with 20 million autonomous miles clocked vs 12.2 miles. The “process” that has so far yielded very little in terms of actual autonomous driving if you ignore the FSD marketing speak.
almost_usual 6y ago
> The question is not, who has the first taxi on any public road anywhere, but who first can launch 10000 of autonomous taxis and make money. Probably Waymo > Waymo so far is just a gigantic money fire, and even if you assume their autonomy works, many people have made arguments that the businesses case is really not very solid at all. Waymo has incredibly few ours driven on public roads outside of a limited area. and Alphabet / Google is a money printing machine, if they get to self driving first it’s pretty much over for their competition. > many people have made arguments that the businesses case is really not very solid at all So self driving technology isn’t a solid business model? Why are so many companies trying to do this? What’s stopping Waymo from patenting this after they get to an acceptable threshold and selling it to their competitors?
- nickik 6y ago
  > Probably Waymo Waymo has spend 10+ years and they can now barley driven in possibly the easiest location in the world, a location where they have logged millions of miles. Waymo focuses on the easiest thing first. The technology on their car is incredibly expensive both now and to scale it to 10k, 100k, 1M vehicles is a huge challenge, both capital and manufacturing. They are like a rocket company who says, we have this amazing air-frame, launch pad, software we only need to figure out the engine, then we are gone make money. I place my bets on the company that has million of cars on the road, seeing every corner case possible in every location, because that is the real challenge to overcome if you actually want to have many 1000s of cars in every city. Plus the sensor suit and compute power in a Tesla maybe cost a few 1000$, scalable to 10s of millions of vehicles. I don't think either of them is really close to self driving, but at least Tesla is focusing on the right problem with a scalable solution. > What’s stopping Waymo from patenting this after they get to an acceptable threshold and selling it to their competitors? If their technology actually works they would want to dominate the self driving taxi market and not sell it to the competition. Their competitors would then have to install this whole Waymo hardware suit, making it not very practical for OEMs and normal cars. Uber or Lyft might be costumers, but why would you sell it to them if you could just replace them. Waymo has burned money for 10+ years, signing a few licensing deal for a slightly better Mobile Eye will not give the return they are hoping for.
tylerhou 6y ago
> I would put my money on Tesla I'll bet you $1000 Tesla won't be the first to develop self-driving that is at least as good as humans (wrt. accident rate) in all weather and terrain conditions. Hell, I don't even think they'll be the third.
adrr 6y ago
I own a Tesla model 3 with hw3 and FSD. Tesla is no where close to self driving. I’d settle for smart summon that doesn’t run over curbs or drive on the wrong side of the lane. I’ve given up on navigate on autopilot.