3 ms·

> Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? I mean, look at McDonalds and Coca-Cola, for example. I'm skeptical

by lhorie 6y ago

> Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? I mean, look at McDonalds and Coca-Cola, for example. I'm skeptical about the idea that simply having the SDV technology somehow also translates to being in a leadership position in terms of regulation, customer support, branding/marketing/being-installed-on-peoples-phones, etc etc. Uber already had to fight uphill regarding regulation in many places so it definitely has some moat now (see, e.g. Uber and Ola in London). Waymo is on completely uncharted territory, regulation-wise. I'm also curious about how the economics and logistics will play out. One criticism of existing ride sharing is not accounting for vehicle depreciation and wear and tear (and this on mass produced vehicles). Waymo vehicles have a lot more expensive technology on board, so I'm curious how that balances out in terms of lidar/etc shelf-life + specialized tech inspections vs ROI. Also, cost of switching goes both ways. If this forces the hand of the other players to roll out SDV (via Cruise partnerships for example), Waymo doesn't necessarily stand to dominate the market, since it's already so crowded w/ well-funded/well-positioned players from all sorts of directions.

petra 6y ago
Yes. There are other important factors. But at least for the next few years, technology is the barrier. So Google can partner with Lyft, for example, to get a good brand, app, customer service, regulation, etc. But on top of that, the brand in this market is the promise "our cars are safe". Google is in a distinct place to own that, because of all the press they had, they press they will have, and by really leading technologically. As for this being a commodity ? I believe we're really far from that.
- lhorie 6y ago
  I'm not actually convinced that technology is necessarily a barrier. People take ubers today. Heck, people take taxis today. I think a bigger challenge for Waymo is going to be getting trust and regulatory favor. Everyone keeps clinging on to the "oh, comparing prices, waymo is cheaper than uber because there's no driver!" narrative, but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. I can also imagine quite a few other not-so-flattering narratives being relatively realistic: - "I'll never trust some faceless AI w/ my kids in the car! I'd rather pay a bit more and get a real person behind the wheel. Support the local economy, you know?" - "Oh, so you want a license to put an entire class of workers out of jobs under MY government term?" - "I got a trashed waymo car and customer support ignored me when I asked for a refund!" - "I took a waymo after partying a bit too hard and now I'm locked out of all my google accounts with no recourse!" - etc I think people on HN often give way too much weight to the "cool tech" aspect of waymo, and disregard the very real and very significant meat bag aspect.
  - petra 6y ago
    >> but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. Current prices include a safety driver and small scale. Prices should go down in the future. And sure, regulation and trust should be huge barriers. But besides the customer service issue(which seems too pessimistic), Google should be leading over others, on the trust issue(no accidents, more miles, highly skilled tech company), And on the regulation issue(good ties with Washington). But those 2 are still a big risk, like you mention.

by lhorie 6y ago

petra 6y ago

Yes. There are other important factors. But at least for the next few years, technology is the barrier. So Google can partner with Lyft, for example, to get a good brand, app, customer service, regulation, etc. But on top of that, the brand in this market is the promise "our cars are safe". Google is in a distinct place to own that, because of all the press they had, they press they will have, and by really leading technologically. As for this being a commodity ? I believe we're really far from that.

lhorie 6y ago
I'm not actually convinced that technology is necessarily a barrier. People take ubers today. Heck, people take taxis today. I think a bigger challenge for Waymo is going to be getting trust and regulatory favor. Everyone keeps clinging on to the "oh, comparing prices, waymo is cheaper than uber because there's no driver!" narrative, but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. I can also imagine quite a few other not-so-flattering narratives being relatively realistic: - "I'll never trust some faceless AI w/ my kids in the car! I'd rather pay a bit more and get a real person behind the wheel. Support the local economy, you know?" - "Oh, so you want a license to put an entire class of workers out of jobs under MY government term?" - "I got a trashed waymo car and customer support ignored me when I asked for a refund!" - "I took a waymo after partying a bit too hard and now I'm locked out of all my google accounts with no recourse!" - etc I think people on HN often give way too much weight to the "cool tech" aspect of waymo, and disregard the very real and very significant meat bag aspect.
- petra 6y ago
  >> but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. Current prices include a safety driver and small scale. Prices should go down in the future. And sure, regulation and trust should be huge barriers. But besides the customer service issue(which seems too pessimistic), Google should be leading over others, on the trust issue(no accidents, more miles, highly skilled tech company), And on the regulation issue(good ties with Washington). But those 2 are still a big risk, like you mention.