3 ms·

Okay, now open Table 5 on that same spreadsheet. And take a look at the numbers for the year 2000. # of deaths Jan-Aug (due to either flu, pneumonia or Covid)

Okay, now open Table 5 on that same spreadsheet. And take a look at the numbers for the year 2000. # of deaths Jan-Aug (due to either flu, pneumonia or Covid) 2000: 40,436 2020: 14,013 + 48,168 Yes, this is significant and certainly Covid seems to be able to spread across a vulnerable population much more quickly than the flu but it doesn't seem to be orders of magnitude deadlier on balance. I get why people thought it was 10-20x in the beginning but it seems as we've learned more it is not the plague we thought it was. Also note the numbers for August have already flipped so that 4x more people are dying of flu and pneumonia now than of Covid.

titzer 6y ago
When you average over a long timespan that includes unprecedented global steps to limit this thing. Also, essentially nobody was infected with COVID in January, so you are just flat out being disingenuous. You could as well go back to November if you really want to make the numbers look good for your argument. > I get why people thought it was 10-20x in the beginning It was 10x in the beginning. It averaged 12x for an entire month. It was 15x for numerous days in a row, and this is despite it infecting far fewer people than the flu. It was why we had a massive global lockdown, mask mandates, social distancing, the whole shitshow, in case you missed that. At this point I am inclined to disengage because you, specifically, have been all over every single COVID thread with the same misinformation and distortions. Frankly, it's tiring. It doesn't matter what the numbers are anymore. Never did. "Just a flu". smh.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  You can perform the same exact calculations over the numbers in Sweden, where there were no mask mandates and no shut downs and no school cancellations and they had the exact same epidemic curve as the UK. In fact they did better than the UK on a per capita basis. Like the UK, Sweden had huge outbreaks in vulnerable populations which occurred in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Once they got those outbreaks under control, their death rates plummeted. So two countries with vastly different approaches had the same outcome. That underscores the fact that Covid is more infectious than the flu and can spread more rapidly. The virus is getting less deadly. You can have many hypotheses for why that is: better treatments, younger patients, viral mutations, or just better testing which is giving us a clearer picture of the actual threat. But you can't deny that YTD, the data does not show a disease that is anywhere close to 10-12x the flu. The fact that the flu has already surpassed Covid in monthly deaths (despite being less infectious) by the month of August at a rate of 4x Covid should tell you something, and we're not even in peak flu season yet. Like others have mentioned, if this disease is capable of spreading much more rapidly than the flu, then it may knock out many of the same people who would have been vulnerable to the flu in a subsequent year. It may be that better treatments cause the death rate to continue to plummet. Is it fair to compare a disease we have been fighting for thousands of years to a novel virus we had no idea about 8 months ago? Probably not. As best practices and treatments get established it may very well turn out that Covid remains less deadly than the flu in perpetuity.

titzer 6y ago

When you average over a long timespan that includes unprecedented global steps to limit this thing. Also, essentially nobody was infected with COVID in January, so you are just flat out being disingenuous. You could as well go back to November if you really want to make the numbers look good for your argument. > I get why people thought it was 10-20x in the beginning It was 10x in the beginning. It averaged 12x for an entire month. It was 15x for numerous days in a row, and this is despite it infecting far fewer people than the flu. It was why we had a massive global lockdown, mask mandates, social distancing, the whole shitshow, in case you missed that. At this point I am inclined to disengage because you, specifically, have been all over every single COVID thread with the same misinformation and distortions. Frankly, it's tiring. It doesn't matter what the numbers are anymore. Never did. "Just a flu". smh.

chrisco255 6y ago
You can perform the same exact calculations over the numbers in Sweden, where there were no mask mandates and no shut downs and no school cancellations and they had the exact same epidemic curve as the UK. In fact they did better than the UK on a per capita basis. Like the UK, Sweden had huge outbreaks in vulnerable populations which occurred in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Once they got those outbreaks under control, their death rates plummeted. So two countries with vastly different approaches had the same outcome. That underscores the fact that Covid is more infectious than the flu and can spread more rapidly. The virus is getting less deadly. You can have many hypotheses for why that is: better treatments, younger patients, viral mutations, or just better testing which is giving us a clearer picture of the actual threat. But you can't deny that YTD, the data does not show a disease that is anywhere close to 10-12x the flu. The fact that the flu has already surpassed Covid in monthly deaths (despite being less infectious) by the month of August at a rate of 4x Covid should tell you something, and we're not even in peak flu season yet. Like others have mentioned, if this disease is capable of spreading much more rapidly than the flu, then it may knock out many of the same people who would have been vulnerable to the flu in a subsequent year. It may be that better treatments cause the death rate to continue to plummet. Is it fair to compare a disease we have been fighting for thousands of years to a novel virus we had no idea about 8 months ago? Probably not. As best practices and treatments get established it may very well turn out that Covid remains less deadly than the flu in perpetuity.