3 ms·

> there is no excess mortality from COVID-19 since July Correct, and that correlates neatly with the number of recorded cases of covid19. One could even draw t

> there is no excess mortality from COVID-19 since July Correct, and that correlates neatly with the number of recorded cases of covid19. One could even draw the conclusion that if less people have covid-19, less people are likely to die from it.

chrisco255 6y ago
The death rate has plummeted not merely the infection rate. Even where "second waves" are occurring around Europe the death rate for this second wave is substantially lower. https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/20/second-wave-of-cases-not-causing-deaths-to-spike-in-europe-13299232/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/20/second-wave-of-cases-not-caus...
- KaiserPro 6y ago
  yes, from this we can conclude one of two things: 1) covid is causing less acute problems 2) The percentage of daily tests that are positive is much lower, meaning that there are nowhere near as many uncounted cases in the wild. I know which my money is on. Its also easy to prove.
gridlockd 6y ago
> Correct, and that correlates neatly with the number of recorded cases of covid19. Not quite. The number of recorded cases in the UK from one month ago is equal to the number of recorded cases at the height of the first wave, yet the fatalities are 10x lower. I do expect excess mortality due to COVID-19 in the coming months, but not to the same extent as during the first wave. We need to re-evaluate the risk profile based on those numbers, not the numbers of the first wave. > One could even draw the conclusion that if less people have covid-19, less people are likely to die from it. One could also draw the conclusion that the more people have already died from COVID-19, the less people are likely to die from it in the future, because fewer susceptible people remain in the pool. Unlike with Influenza, it takes many decades of lifetime to develop a serious risk of dying from COVID.

3 ms·

> there is no excess mortality from COVID-19 since July Correct, and that correlates neatly with the number of recorded cases of covid19. One could even draw t

by KaiserPro 6y ago

chrisco255 6y ago
The death rate has plummeted not merely the infection rate. Even where "second waves" are occurring around Europe the death rate for this second wave is substantially lower. https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/20/second-wave-of-cases-not-causing-deaths-to-spike-in-europe-13299232/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/20/second-wave-of-cases-not-caus...
- KaiserPro 6y ago
  yes, from this we can conclude one of two things: 1) covid is causing less acute problems 2) The percentage of daily tests that are positive is much lower, meaning that there are nowhere near as many uncounted cases in the wild. I know which my money is on. Its also easy to prove.
gridlockd 6y ago
> Correct, and that correlates neatly with the number of recorded cases of covid19. Not quite. The number of recorded cases in the UK from one month ago is equal to the number of recorded cases at the height of the first wave, yet the fatalities are 10x lower. I do expect excess mortality due to COVID-19 in the coming months, but not to the same extent as during the first wave. We need to re-evaluate the risk profile based on those numbers, not the numbers of the first wave. > One could even draw the conclusion that if less people have covid-19, less people are likely to die from it. One could also draw the conclusion that the more people have already died from COVID-19, the less people are likely to die from it in the future, because fewer susceptible people remain in the pool. Unlike with Influenza, it takes many decades of lifetime to develop a serious risk of dying from COVID.