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I think the 1 million doors explanation does a very poor job of explaining why switching is the correct choice and only gives a more intuitive answer, not more
by ZephyrBlu 6y ago
I think the 1 million doors explanation does a very poor job of explaining why switching is the correct choice and only gives a more intuitive answer, not more intuitive understanding.
This is how I understand the Monty Hall problem (Using 3 doors):
1) You are asked to choose a door from A, B or C. You choose A.
Probabilities:
p(A = Car) = 1/3
p(not A = Car) = p(B or C = Car) = 2/3
2) Monty opens a door and shows you a goat. Let's say he opens door B and gives you the choice to switch from door A.
Probabilities with B eliminated:
p(A = Car) = 1/3
p(not A = Car) = p(C = Car) = 2/3
3) The probability of the car being behind door A remains unchanged at 1/3, therefore the probability of the car being behind not A is also still 2/3. Since door B has been eliminated, this means the probability that the car is behind door C _must_ be 2/3! Therefore, we choose to switch from door A to door C.
- chippy 6y agoThank you!
- chrisweekly 6y agoBravo! This explanation wins in every way.