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I think where I differ (also expressed on the parent comment) is that when Monty ruins the game, you are tossing out many cases where the "I'm sticking with my
by tasty_freeze 6y ago
I think where I differ (also expressed on the parent comment) is that when Monty ruins the game, you are tossing out many cases where the "I'm sticking with my original choice" strategy failed, while I'm counting them as a failure in the strategy.
- irishsultan 6y agoYou are free to count them as a failure of the "I'm sticking with my original choice" strategy, but only if you also count them as a failure of the "I'm switching" strategy, because when Monty ruins the game there is no way to win the car by switching to the remaining closed door. If Monty chooses randomly both strategies fail 2/3 of the time.
- graeme 6y agoPrecisely. Either way switch or no switch have the same success rate if Monty ruins the game. You can count it as 1/2 or 2/3 but either way both choices are the same. So it’s a very different scenario from when Monty knows the door is a goat.