4 ms·
You're right. I've felt a little bitter about the messaging ever since March. From the get-go, there were articles pointing out the numerical reality that it w
by AlanSE 6y ago
You're right. I've felt a little bitter about the messaging ever since March.
From the get-go, there were articles pointing out the numerical reality that it would take 10 years to reach herd immunity with a curve flattened to match ICU capacity. Those calculations were slightly too pessimistic due to a myopic focus on ventilators, and the therapeutics have evolved since then.
So we were flattening the curve to delay a mass spread until a vaccine? Doesn't add up. Masks are as effective as the candidate vaccines will be at 100% use. Not everyone will get vaccinated. Maybe we delay until masks+vaccine push R0<1. Also doesn't add up. The new infection numbers are steady NOW, R0 has averaged around unity for months.
Look, it's hard to summarize a strategy when there is no strategy. There's just been reaction.