I agree with you 100% that they're not independent, but I don't know enough about the data to model the probabilities of failure and availability in a HN commen

I agree with you 100% that they're not independent, but I don't know enough about the data to model the probabilities of failure and availability in a HN comment :-) After today's event, it would certainly be interesting to see how resource consumption changed in other availability zones and at other providers during this outage. I wonder if that could be measured passively? What I mean is, by monitoring response times of various services that are known to be in specific regions and seeing how that metric changes (as opposed to waiting on a party that has little-to-no economic benefit to release that information.)