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It matters because in the case where Monty does know to avoid the door, those games end up as wins for the person who selected to switch, as opposed to broken g
by Taek 6y ago
It matters because in the case where Monty does know to avoid the door, those games end up as wins for the person who selected to switch, as opposed to broken games.
You are taking an empty result and replacing it with a strict win.
- SamBam 6y agoI think lqet's point is that if it's just recounted as being thrown into a situation -- you've picked a door, and Monty opens a door, and it's a goat -- you don't know if you're in a world where Monty always picks a goat or one where he just happened to be lucky. In the second scenario, it doesn't matter if you switch.
- couchand 6y agoWell in that situation it's still beneficial to switch, unless the probability of being in the first scenario is exactly zero.
- ubercow13 6y agoYou’re forgetting about the possibility of being in a universe where Monty only opens a door if you chose the correct door originally (otherwise he does something else like ending the game). If you know nothing about the rule set of the game show, Monty opening the door tells you nothing and you have no reason to either switch or not switch.
- SamBam 6y agoIndeed. It's like the argument that you may as well believe in God, because if he doesn't exist it doesn't hurt you. That said, though, if you're trying to convince someone of the correctness of the Monty Hall Problem, and they're stuck on that misconception, saying "well you may as well switch in case I'm right" isn't a great argument.