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> But he doesn’t choose the door at random. He deliberately chooses to show you goats. Since this is always possible, it tells you nothing What happens if Mont
by millstone 6y ago
> But he doesn’t choose the door at random. He deliberately chooses to show you goats. Since this is always possible, it tells you nothing
What happens if Monty does not ever choose at random. Say that Monty always opens the the highest possible door.
If you choose door 1 and Monty reveals door 2, then switching (to 3) is 100% win.
If you choose door 1 and Monty reveals door 3, then switching (to 2) is 50% win.
I think it's a crucial unstated assumption that Monty does choose randomly among available goat doors.
- kgwgk 6y agoThe assumption is that you don’t know how he picks the door when there are two goats. It’s a reasonable assumption when the problem statement doesn’t say anything about it. It could be random, it could be the highest, it could be the lowest, it could depend on the position of the stars. The point is that you don’t know so the answer cannot depend on it.