4 ms·

Affordable supersonic aircraft seem like a great technological achievement, and I'm all for it. But would the impact be that high? Cutting flight time by 40-4

Affordable supersonic aircraft seem like a great technological achievement, and I'm all for it. But would the impact be that high? Cutting flight time by 40-45% is nice, but end to end travel time includes driving to/from the airport and immigration, which does not change. Let's look at JFK-LHR (New York - London). The flight time is cut from 6.5h to 3.5h. Let's add 2 hours overhead at each end (somewhat ... optimistic), which makes it 10.5h vs 7.5h. LA-Sydney is 14.5h vs 8.5h, or 18.5h vs 12.5h end to end. Is that difference really going to change if you take the trip or not? Would you be willing to pay a significant markup for that? Seems like the market would be constrained to relatively high profile business travel.

bobthepanda 6y ago
LA-Sydney would become as doable as Chicago-London, and one of these trips today is much, much easier than the other. The target per cost is equivalent to today's business class. Some people might jump at that. And we have no idea what a non-premium Boom cabin might look like.
- vkou 6y ago
  No, it won't. This plane promises a range of 4,500 nautical miles. LAX to SYD is 6,500 nautical miles. You can stop to refuel in Hawaii, but that will eat much of your time savings.
  - bobthepanda 6y ago
    I didn't take the parent comment to be talking about Boom specifically, but supersonic in general.
bufferoverflow 6y ago
> travel to/from the airport and immigration, which does not change. Musk's The Boring Company is working on changing the speed of travel to the airport. Midtown Manhattan to JFK is around 45 minutes to drive. But it's only 11 miles away. If you can travel in a straight line at 80 mph, it should only take 8.3 minutes). And rich people who buy flights like that can already take helicopters and have separate immigration/customs gates without lines and checks.
- tomcam 6y ago
  Moving multilane traffic on a busy route to a single tunnel will cause an enormous amount of traffic churn on each end.
  - bufferoverflow 6y ago
    Nobody is talking about a single tunnel. The plan is to have a 3D network of tunnels.
    - tomcam 6y ago
      It stretches credibility to imagine such a network of tunnels could be built feasibly anywhere in Manhattan
      - bufferoverflow 6y ago
        Under Manhattan, not in.
        sroussey 6y ago
        Hahaha. Manhattan goes underground more than it goes above in most places. Old tunnels from way back are 600ft down. Tons of other stuff too. https://cooperator.com/article/a-look-at-what-lies-beneath/full https://cooperator.com/article/a-look-at-what-lies-beneath/f...
- cheeze 6y ago
  So we'll use the vaporware hyperloop to get to the airport for the vaporware plane?
  - nickik 6y ago
    Maybe you don't know what 'vapoware' is. Vapoware is a product that has been announced and didn't arrive after its release date. There literally has never been a product announcement around hyperloop. It was a technical paper laying out the idea, that's all. Second, you don't actually need a 'hyperloop', a 'loop' is perfectly fine. A 'loop' already exists in Nevada, and its just a tunnel with an electric car/bus/platfom inside. That isn't hyperloop fast, but you can still get up to 100+ MPH pretty easily. And the 'loop' system is Las Vegas is perfectly within its schedule plan so far. The question is just if somebody pays for these tunnels.
wefarrell 6y ago
High-profile business travel is a pretty huge market. They're likely to be indirectly relevant to mainstream air travel because coach seats are subsidized by first/business class, which this is likely to cannibalize.
myrandomcomment 6y ago
Before Covid, I flew to APAC or EMEA once a month. I did 120K+ miles last year just to Asia, on JAL (its a great airline, great service, good people). I will be first in line to get on a supersonic flight SFO to TKO (Narita & Haneda).
- iooi 6y ago
  Off topic, but do you have a strong preference for JAL over ANA?
  - myrandomcomment 6y ago
    JAL 100%. Better mileage program, more perks. ANA is simpler to get lower status, but getting to the top is better on JAL. I can speak highly for the quality of service at JAL. Now to be fair, I have had Diamond for 7 years, so on my normal schedules and airports the staff recognize me. I have not been able to fly at all this year. They have frozen expire dates for status, allowing for an extra year to make up for the lost 2020 year. The JAL flight JL01 from SFO used to leave near midnight. I screwed up once and booked the flight on the wrong day. When I showed up a day late, they asked if I was okay as I had been booked on the flight the day before. We had a good chuckle at my screwup as they found me a seat on the flight, handing me a ticket, no change fee, etc. without a thought.
nl 6y ago
Most places offer rapid immigration controls for frequent travellers. Singapore's gets you into the country in 10 minutes[1]. [1] https://www.flystaypoints.com.au/the-singapore-frequent-traveller-program-offers-fast-track-immigration/ https://www.flystaypoints.com.au/the-singapore-frequent-trav...

bobthepanda 6y ago

LA-Sydney would become as doable as Chicago-London, and one of these trips today is much, much easier than the other. The target per cost is equivalent to today's business class. Some people might jump at that. And we have no idea what a non-premium Boom cabin might look like.

vkou 6y ago
No, it won't. This plane promises a range of 4,500 nautical miles. LAX to SYD is 6,500 nautical miles. You can stop to refuel in Hawaii, but that will eat much of your time savings.
- bobthepanda 6y ago
  I didn't take the parent comment to be talking about Boom specifically, but supersonic in general.

bufferoverflow 6y ago

> travel to/from the airport and immigration, which does not change. Musk's The Boring Company is working on changing the speed of travel to the airport. Midtown Manhattan to JFK is around 45 minutes to drive. But it's only 11 miles away. If you can travel in a straight line at 80 mph, it should only take 8.3 minutes). And rich people who buy flights like that can already take helicopters and have separate immigration/customs gates without lines and checks.

tomcam 6y ago
Moving multilane traffic on a busy route to a single tunnel will cause an enormous amount of traffic churn on each end.
- bufferoverflow 6y ago
  Nobody is talking about a single tunnel. The plan is to have a 3D network of tunnels.
  - tomcam 6y ago
    It stretches credibility to imagine such a network of tunnels could be built feasibly anywhere in Manhattan
    - bufferoverflow 6y ago
      Under Manhattan, not in.
      - sroussey 6y ago
        Hahaha. Manhattan goes underground more than it goes above in most places. Old tunnels from way back are 600ft down. Tons of other stuff too. https://cooperator.com/article/a-look-at-what-lies-beneath/full https://cooperator.com/article/a-look-at-what-lies-beneath/f...
cheeze 6y ago
So we'll use the vaporware hyperloop to get to the airport for the vaporware plane?
- nickik 6y ago
  Maybe you don't know what 'vapoware' is. Vapoware is a product that has been announced and didn't arrive after its release date. There literally has never been a product announcement around hyperloop. It was a technical paper laying out the idea, that's all. Second, you don't actually need a 'hyperloop', a 'loop' is perfectly fine. A 'loop' already exists in Nevada, and its just a tunnel with an electric car/bus/platfom inside. That isn't hyperloop fast, but you can still get up to 100+ MPH pretty easily. And the 'loop' system is Las Vegas is perfectly within its schedule plan so far. The question is just if somebody pays for these tunnels.

wefarrell 6y ago

High-profile business travel is a pretty huge market. They're likely to be indirectly relevant to mainstream air travel because coach seats are subsidized by first/business class, which this is likely to cannibalize.

myrandomcomment 6y ago

Before Covid, I flew to APAC or EMEA once a month. I did 120K+ miles last year just to Asia, on JAL (its a great airline, great service, good people). I will be first in line to get on a supersonic flight SFO to TKO (Narita & Haneda).

iooi 6y ago
Off topic, but do you have a strong preference for JAL over ANA?
- myrandomcomment 6y ago
  JAL 100%. Better mileage program, more perks. ANA is simpler to get lower status, but getting to the top is better on JAL. I can speak highly for the quality of service at JAL. Now to be fair, I have had Diamond for 7 years, so on my normal schedules and airports the staff recognize me. I have not been able to fly at all this year. They have frozen expire dates for status, allowing for an extra year to make up for the lost 2020 year. The JAL flight JL01 from SFO used to leave near midnight. I screwed up once and booked the flight on the wrong day. When I showed up a day late, they asked if I was okay as I had been booked on the flight the day before. We had a good chuckle at my screwup as they found me a seat on the flight, handing me a ticket, no change fee, etc. without a thought.

nl 6y ago

Most places offer rapid immigration controls for frequent travellers. Singapore's gets you into the country in 10 minutes[1]. [1] https://www.flystaypoints.com.au/the-singapore-frequent-traveller-program-offers-fast-track-immigration/ https://www.flystaypoints.com.au/the-singapore-frequent-trav...