4 ms·
20 years? lol ill take that bet
by aerovistae 6y ago
20 years? lol ill take that bet
- enahs-sf 6y agoI wonder what capabilities they have versus what they turn on for the general public due to regulation and safety. I would imagine that to release FSD in the wild will require an insanely high factor of safety.
- JshWright 6y agoAre you taking the over or the under?
- yumraj 6y agoYou’re guessing more than 20 years or less?
- aerovistae 6y agomuch less
- Judgmentality 6y agoHow much less do you want to bet on? Also how much do you want to bet?
- aerovistae 6y agoI'd put $100 that a tesla will be able to take you from start to destination without help in no more than six years, and I think I'm being conservative.
- kindatrue 6y ago>from start to destination without help You might want to narrow this down by location. Take a 10 mile trip in Menlo Park (which they once called "urban" in a video) is different than a 10 mile trip in Manhattan... in February
- Judgmentality 6y agoI was going to say the same thing. GP and I could design the bet with assumptions like "most of the US" and "good weather" but that's riddled with issues from a contractual standpoint. So how about it has to take GP from his home to a destination 100+ miles away, the car has to park itself in a legal spot, and it must reverse at least once during the trip? And I'd like to see it done at least 3x, including once when it's not perfect weather (could be foggy, moderate rain, light snow - whatever).
- aerovistae 6y agoWith conditions as you've described I would still happily bet $100 that no later than 9:00am EST Oct 9 2026, a Tesla available to ordinary consumers will be able to perform the task with no driver intervention.
- atian 6y agoBuy TSLA instead.
- yumraj 6y agoI’ll take that bet. We’ll come in 20 years to this comment :).
- dmode 6y agoLet’s do it. I am going on 5 yrs of autopilot ownership. It still phantom brakes on freeways today as it did 5 years back. Forget about the major edge cases