4 ms·

You said it well: "he will show you a goat." But the standard formulation just says Monte opened a door and it had a goat behind it. No explicit mention of int

by tromp 6y ago

You said it well: "he will show you a goat." But the standard formulation just says Monte opened a door and it had a goat behind it. No explicit mention of intention. It matters not that he happened to do. It matters that he will.

spullara 6y ago
It doesn't, as long as he always shows a goat.
- pxx 6y ago
  Nope. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24714612 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24714612
  - spullara 6y ago
    See the response to the comment. You don't understand it. I'm sorry.
    - xanathar 6y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24716753 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24716753 It's a Conditional Probability of non independent events.
    - pxx 6y ago
      What response? The only one, which agrees with it?
roywiggins 6y ago
What if he didn't know and just happened to open the goat door? Should you still switch?
- pxx 6y ago
  It doesn't matter if you switch in that case. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24714612 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24714612
basch 6y ago
Simulations where he opens a goat door are a subset of all simulations. The thought experiment is only concerned with the subset.