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The market's network effects will negatively effect this new tax. There is cost-benefit analysis to everything one spends from their limited resources. The "ju

The market's network effects will negatively effect this new tax. There is cost-benefit analysis to everything one spends from their limited resources. The "just shift" in the market is painful like you said before.. to the weakest Americans the most. the US companies and individuals are economically so fragile they do have enough operating expenses to absorb a month loss of revenue. When the consumption and stimulus doesn't rise as much as needed within the time, shops close because of inflation. Lowering H1B only solves the problem when hiring local person does not increase budgets. And there is shortage of Americans applying to these jobs or studying for these jobs. And US companies operate on lean culture. A food, insurance company does not want to maintain in-house technology team for every project. Again it has to do with complex net of financial entanglements.. So it really has to be a consulting partner, whether American or not, but definitely meeting their current budget constraints. It is a worthy goal to aspire white collar jobs. Especially when the country specializes in production of high-technology. Something government should provide more to its people.. But I don't see a policy on the horizon in this direction. -- When the forest is on the fire, arial firefighting does not stop it, rain doesn't stop it... Solutions designed for small-scale problems do not work when those problems become large-scale.

nwienert 6y ago
There never should be policy that purposely adds temporary competition to American workers with no proven large benefit to society as a whole. Where it the proof? What it seems you’re arguing is that H1B is proven to be absolutely necessary for American companies to be effective, can you back that up? Because in the absence of evidence of it being truly necessary for us to compete, there’s no argument for it existing. Americans are more than willing to consult and do IT, we are good at it and it’s our bread an butter. China is not importing cheaper labor sources to take over their white collar jobs, no country that cares about its future would make such a short sighted mistake as to distort its own markets to suppress wages of its most valuable sector employees. It’s pure regulatory capture by the big IT consulting firms and big tech firms who have shown time and time again they will do whatever they can do suppress wages. Apple and Google got caught colluding to suppress wages. Google is one of the biggest proponents of H1B, and yet since they got busted for illegal wage suppression practices, have they been at risk of going under? Have their stock prices dipped? It’s not small companies who are relying on these H1Bs it’s the Fortune 500, the most successful companies are benefiting from this in majority. You’re doing a lot of defending of big rich companies in favor of wage suppression and disincentivizing the next generation of American employees from learning tech. Even from a long term view: do we want to encourage Americans to move into tech or no? Does this policy increase incentives for Americans to learn IT or no? Simple questions. And if you truly believe the big companies can’t thrive without 40% more expensive IT (which wouldn’t even be the case, in house firms would optimize over time to compete better), then advocate for higher legal full immigration - at least then Americans win in the long run by retaining good talent. But you need to prove that it’s necessary first, and then you should argue for full legal immigration and be happy H1B are going down. The only people happy with H1B are those who think indentured servants should be imported to America to suppress wages and save big companies extra bottom line. Even if you support importing more white collar jobs, you should be happy at this news.
- tomcat27 6y ago
  First I am not defending big rich companies. If anything I am complaining the government is not doing enough in the right direction to improve the proportion of Americans in tech jobs. Every H1B petition from American companies is precisely saying the same thing: they need that worker to run the company effectively and they had no other choice. I suppose each count of the petition ever made is legally binding. Should this be another such anti-trust lawsuit you mentioned, it will be very big! I don't think they are joking this time. Those H1B workers contributing to the state of the art technology are not replaceable anyway practically should the US want to innovate within its jurisdiction. Companies hiring for these positions are not declaring a ceiling on the number of positions, at least to pubic.. so anyone qualifying their interview gets the job, to large extent if not all the time. But fewer Americans study STEM or apply to those jobs meeting prerequisites. These companies consistently publish in media that they have shortage.. and the H1B petitions point they had no other choice. Those H1B workers in IT consulting earning somewhat lower wages are easier to replace but still practically hard. Their petitions tell the same story: they had no other choice. The right policy framework I believe could work is first making the foundation stronger: - Heavily subsidize university STEM tuition for Americans next 5-10 years. - Encourage them to pursue STEM in school. There is no way one focuses on English literature in high school and shows interest in engineering at university. Then there might be enough talent pool that creates local companies and give strong competition to Indian IT companies. How many home-grown IT companies are there in the US? What's their size and valuation? The pipeline must be fixed from the beginning.. not just at the end. With enough local sellers could the competition from outside gets weakened.
  - nwienert 6y ago
    It's impossible to "compete" with countries with far weaker currencies, you can't refute that, there is no competing. First, you are absolutely taking the side of large companies, there's no refuting that even if you say it a hundred times. Second, of course the companies say they need it, that's the only way they can get the visas. But it's not true. Third, let incentives do the work. Banning H1B immediately would open hundreds of thousands high paying jobs in the US. No need to subsidize and add distortion to distortion, the jobs would be filled as demand would increase. Fourth, very very few H1B are contributing to "state of the art" anything, the vast majority are taking the exact types of jobs that your entry level college graduate could take. And if they contributing to state of the art, then raising the H1B pay to be more fair is exactly the reform needed to pay them properly and ensure we aren't replacing slightly higher paying and equally capable workers.

nwienert 6y ago

There never should be policy that purposely adds temporary competition to American workers with no proven large benefit to society as a whole. Where it the proof? What it seems you’re arguing is that H1B is proven to be absolutely necessary for American companies to be effective, can you back that up? Because in the absence of evidence of it being truly necessary for us to compete, there’s no argument for it existing. Americans are more than willing to consult and do IT, we are good at it and it’s our bread an butter. China is not importing cheaper labor sources to take over their white collar jobs, no country that cares about its future would make such a short sighted mistake as to distort its own markets to suppress wages of its most valuable sector employees. It’s pure regulatory capture by the big IT consulting firms and big tech firms who have shown time and time again they will do whatever they can do suppress wages. Apple and Google got caught colluding to suppress wages. Google is one of the biggest proponents of H1B, and yet since they got busted for illegal wage suppression practices, have they been at risk of going under? Have their stock prices dipped? It’s not small companies who are relying on these H1Bs it’s the Fortune 500, the most successful companies are benefiting from this in majority. You’re doing a lot of defending of big rich companies in favor of wage suppression and disincentivizing the next generation of American employees from learning tech. Even from a long term view: do we want to encourage Americans to move into tech or no? Does this policy increase incentives for Americans to learn IT or no? Simple questions. And if you truly believe the big companies can’t thrive without 40% more expensive IT (which wouldn’t even be the case, in house firms would optimize over time to compete better), then advocate for higher legal full immigration - at least then Americans win in the long run by retaining good talent. But you need to prove that it’s necessary first, and then you should argue for full legal immigration and be happy H1B are going down. The only people happy with H1B are those who think indentured servants should be imported to America to suppress wages and save big companies extra bottom line. Even if you support importing more white collar jobs, you should be happy at this news.

tomcat27 6y ago
First I am not defending big rich companies. If anything I am complaining the government is not doing enough in the right direction to improve the proportion of Americans in tech jobs. Every H1B petition from American companies is precisely saying the same thing: they need that worker to run the company effectively and they had no other choice. I suppose each count of the petition ever made is legally binding. Should this be another such anti-trust lawsuit you mentioned, it will be very big! I don't think they are joking this time. Those H1B workers contributing to the state of the art technology are not replaceable anyway practically should the US want to innovate within its jurisdiction. Companies hiring for these positions are not declaring a ceiling on the number of positions, at least to pubic.. so anyone qualifying their interview gets the job, to large extent if not all the time. But fewer Americans study STEM or apply to those jobs meeting prerequisites. These companies consistently publish in media that they have shortage.. and the H1B petitions point they had no other choice. Those H1B workers in IT consulting earning somewhat lower wages are easier to replace but still practically hard. Their petitions tell the same story: they had no other choice. The right policy framework I believe could work is first making the foundation stronger: - Heavily subsidize university STEM tuition for Americans next 5-10 years. - Encourage them to pursue STEM in school. There is no way one focuses on English literature in high school and shows interest in engineering at university. Then there might be enough talent pool that creates local companies and give strong competition to Indian IT companies. How many home-grown IT companies are there in the US? What's their size and valuation? The pipeline must be fixed from the beginning.. not just at the end. With enough local sellers could the competition from outside gets weakened.
- nwienert 6y ago
  It's impossible to "compete" with countries with far weaker currencies, you can't refute that, there is no competing. First, you are absolutely taking the side of large companies, there's no refuting that even if you say it a hundred times. Second, of course the companies say they need it, that's the only way they can get the visas. But it's not true. Third, let incentives do the work. Banning H1B immediately would open hundreds of thousands high paying jobs in the US. No need to subsidize and add distortion to distortion, the jobs would be filled as demand would increase. Fourth, very very few H1B are contributing to "state of the art" anything, the vast majority are taking the exact types of jobs that your entry level college graduate could take. And if they contributing to state of the art, then raising the H1B pay to be more fair is exactly the reform needed to pay them properly and ensure we aren't replacing slightly higher paying and equally capable workers.