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>If he opens a door randomly, and gets a goat, you don't modify your likelihood at all by switching. At best, that was intended as a red herring to make the co
by basch 6y ago
>If he opens a door randomly, and gets a goat, you don't modify your likelihood at all by switching.
At best, that was intended as a red herring to make the correct solution less obvious. It was not intended as an alternate correct answer. It's not how the game ever worked.
The initial version of the question said he opens a goat door. Whether he knew it would be a goat door or not is slightly irrelevant, because your odds of being right the first time were 1/3. As far as the premise of the thought experiment, a goat door always gets opened, either through peaking, premonition, or consistent luck.
>Saying 1 door or 2 doors doesn't mean you actually grasp the entirety of the problem.
I disagree, and if you don't see it as that simple, you are falling for the trap that makes the question fun.
- klmadfejno 6y agoI don't have a particularly strong opinion on this, but if we accept that its interesting as a thought experiment and not a useful strat should one find themselves time traveled into the monte hall game show, I think it's worth exploring the very closely related variants of the thought experiment.
- basch 6y agoIf I time traveled into the show, and he opened a goat door, I would switch.
- twiceaday 6y agoThere is no better strategy than switching. Only under certain rules is there an equally good strategy in staying.
- klmadfejno 6y agoNot if switching costs a dollar :)
- boomboomsubban 6y agoNot important, and just barely relevant, but "Let's Make a Deal" was Monty Hall's gameshow and it's still being made.