4 ms·

Whenever lower wage markets are open to higher wage markets, what happens is the higher wage markets lose - especially their up-and-coming developers who normal

Whenever lower wage markets are open to higher wage markets, what happens is the higher wage markets lose - especially their up-and-coming developers who normally would get hired and trained, but instead get replaced. This normally happens near the bottom, historically. Low wage workers come and work on farms and at other minimum wage jobs, they do actually have an effect on the labor market that is negative for American workers, but since there are usually many jobs on the bottom it doesn't have a large effect. But at the top - where jobs are far more limited and scarce - it has a large effect. Further, the companies using H1B are almost entirely large companies. Small businesses are not being hurt at all by a shortage of H1B's. International trade is highly susceptible to imbalances. Lower wage workers will replace higher wage workers if not protected against, and it isn't always a win in terms of lower cost goods - it often can displace an entire industry that normally would have done well. Especially industries that are important for America to stay strong in, like manufacturing. It also is highly susceptible to distortionary trade policy - see subsidies in foreign nations designed to take over entire industries long term. Finally, a note on hover governments should work. They should look out for their citizens. That is their modus operandi. There shouldn't be charity, unless the charity in some way truly helps our citizens. And especially, they should care about the average gal. H1B visas are literally taking out a big pool of well-paid jobs that otherwise we could easily be feeding with community college graduates and younger citizens. This isn't even close to hacking anything, by any definition of the word. It's literally what he campaigned on years ago, if anything it's super long overdue.

holdenk 6y ago
I've worked at small companies while on an H1B, if you look at the who's hiring posts on HN I think you will see many places willing to sponsor H1s, so it's not just big companies.
tomcat27 6y ago
When the US subsidizes corn production so much it destabilized local corn markets everywhere else in the world. Suddenly, it's cheaper to import corn from the US than buy at a local farm house in other places. This alone doesn't mean bad news to those other countries. The likely response may not be to increase import tax on corn. You need to see where the net positive results are accumulating as a consequence. I don't have a solution to these complicated problems. My observation is today's policy won't solve the problem even slightly. The US specializes in innovation, incentivizes economy to create innovation. IT consulting is not innovation. When you start hiring local employees at a higher salaries, influences inflation.. and what does this inflation from IT mean to other sectors? The right question is: What would be the cost of home grown IT consulting that can compete with Indian IT consulting? How fast can those policies be deployed? is it even in the US interest to pursue this direction? What I don't see is a framework that doesn't look like a patch work. It's definitely targeted to win elections. The real promise is not delivered.
- nwienert 6y ago
  So your claim is hiring locally somehow “influences” inflation... and does what? What is the cost of home grown IT? There’s no “cost”, it’s just a shift in market, the wage may go up a bit but business would also adapt, either by being more efficient or shifting budget, etc. I’m not really putting together where your questions are leading. They don’t feel like they have a coherent point, and they don’t seem to be pointing in any way. This is an incremental improvement, one that absolutely will reduce H1B which is a good thing for Americans. There’s no shortage of Americans able to take these jobs, and if there is ever at times, the increased demand will solve itself - companies will raise wages, Americans will respond to higher wages by filling the jobs, America will grow stronger with more white collar jobs going to our own citizens. And it will help win elections because it’s what citizens want, are you claiming any other way it helps win? It’s a popular policy and this is an effective change to it, if it wasn’t effective I doubt you’d be arguing about all these downstream effects you’re worried it will cause - you can’t say it won’t be effective but also it will be effective in a negative way. Tell me how raising wage requirements + requiring higher education does anything but lowering H1B usage and force companies to only get more qualified people on the visa. Win win.
  - tomcat27 6y ago
    The market's network effects will negatively effect this new tax. There is cost-benefit analysis to everything one spends from their limited resources. The "just shift" in the market is painful like you said before.. to the weakest Americans the most. the US companies and individuals are economically so fragile they do have enough operating expenses to absorb a month loss of revenue. When the consumption and stimulus doesn't rise as much as needed within the time, shops close because of inflation. Lowering H1B only solves the problem when hiring local person does not increase budgets. And there is shortage of Americans applying to these jobs or studying for these jobs. And US companies operate on lean culture. A food, insurance company does not want to maintain in-house technology team for every project. Again it has to do with complex net of financial entanglements.. So it really has to be a consulting partner, whether American or not, but definitely meeting their current budget constraints. It is a worthy goal to aspire white collar jobs. Especially when the country specializes in production of high-technology. Something government should provide more to its people.. But I don't see a policy on the horizon in this direction. -- When the forest is on the fire, arial firefighting does not stop it, rain doesn't stop it... Solutions designed for small-scale problems do not work when those problems become large-scale.

holdenk 6y ago

I've worked at small companies while on an H1B, if you look at the who's hiring posts on HN I think you will see many places willing to sponsor H1s, so it's not just big companies.

tomcat27 6y ago

When the US subsidizes corn production so much it destabilized local corn markets everywhere else in the world. Suddenly, it's cheaper to import corn from the US than buy at a local farm house in other places. This alone doesn't mean bad news to those other countries. The likely response may not be to increase import tax on corn. You need to see where the net positive results are accumulating as a consequence. I don't have a solution to these complicated problems. My observation is today's policy won't solve the problem even slightly. The US specializes in innovation, incentivizes economy to create innovation. IT consulting is not innovation. When you start hiring local employees at a higher salaries, influences inflation.. and what does this inflation from IT mean to other sectors? The right question is: What would be the cost of home grown IT consulting that can compete with Indian IT consulting? How fast can those policies be deployed? is it even in the US interest to pursue this direction? What I don't see is a framework that doesn't look like a patch work. It's definitely targeted to win elections. The real promise is not delivered.

nwienert 6y ago
So your claim is hiring locally somehow “influences” inflation... and does what? What is the cost of home grown IT? There’s no “cost”, it’s just a shift in market, the wage may go up a bit but business would also adapt, either by being more efficient or shifting budget, etc. I’m not really putting together where your questions are leading. They don’t feel like they have a coherent point, and they don’t seem to be pointing in any way. This is an incremental improvement, one that absolutely will reduce H1B which is a good thing for Americans. There’s no shortage of Americans able to take these jobs, and if there is ever at times, the increased demand will solve itself - companies will raise wages, Americans will respond to higher wages by filling the jobs, America will grow stronger with more white collar jobs going to our own citizens. And it will help win elections because it’s what citizens want, are you claiming any other way it helps win? It’s a popular policy and this is an effective change to it, if it wasn’t effective I doubt you’d be arguing about all these downstream effects you’re worried it will cause - you can’t say it won’t be effective but also it will be effective in a negative way. Tell me how raising wage requirements + requiring higher education does anything but lowering H1B usage and force companies to only get more qualified people on the visa. Win win.
- tomcat27 6y ago
  The market's network effects will negatively effect this new tax. There is cost-benefit analysis to everything one spends from their limited resources. The "just shift" in the market is painful like you said before.. to the weakest Americans the most. the US companies and individuals are economically so fragile they do have enough operating expenses to absorb a month loss of revenue. When the consumption and stimulus doesn't rise as much as needed within the time, shops close because of inflation. Lowering H1B only solves the problem when hiring local person does not increase budgets. And there is shortage of Americans applying to these jobs or studying for these jobs. And US companies operate on lean culture. A food, insurance company does not want to maintain in-house technology team for every project. Again it has to do with complex net of financial entanglements.. So it really has to be a consulting partner, whether American or not, but definitely meeting their current budget constraints. It is a worthy goal to aspire white collar jobs. Especially when the country specializes in production of high-technology. Something government should provide more to its people.. But I don't see a policy on the horizon in this direction. -- When the forest is on the fire, arial firefighting does not stop it, rain doesn't stop it... Solutions designed for small-scale problems do not work when those problems become large-scale.