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Simulation has been used extensively by economists going back decades. One example is the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Often the output is det
by hnracer 6y ago
Simulation has been used extensively by economists going back decades. One example is the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model.
Often the output is determined and easily predicted by the input assumptions and the results you get back aren't surprising given an understanding of those assumptions as well as the process that generates the output. Quite often it's a case of garbage in garbage out. Worse yet is when the results are spun as a finding/discovery in the empirical sense when in reality it's very common for researchers to fudge the inputs in order to get an output that is coherent and aligns with both common sense and extant theory.
Simulation (Monte Carlo) is much more reliable in financial product research since the market does seem to obey some stable distributional dynamics, and the consequences on product pricing are well understood.