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FTA > “It would be amazing to make tax policy less political and more data driven,” Seems like an ...optimistic... viewpoint. IMO, the model, the data, and th

FTA > “It would be amazing to make tax policy less political and more data driven,” Seems like an ...optimistic... viewpoint. IMO, the model, the data, and the notion of fairness are all political. > "the result appears counterintuitive and not something that a human might have devised." Will a legislator be willing to enact a policy that doesn't meet their intuitions?

remram 6y ago
I don't know, that seems to match real-world policies, where there are unemployment aids but they're usually contingent on you being employed some of the time (e.g. runs out if you haven't been employed in X months).
- pjmorris 6y ago
  Perhaps the specific example policy seems intuitive to some. I'm wondering about the general case. There's a problem of interpretability in AI models, it seems like there's also a related problem in terms of how to make decisions based on uninterpretable (unintuitive) models.
  - remram 6y ago
    Yes, and there's also the possibility of over-fitting, finding a local minimum, or the population size being too small...
maerF0x0 6y ago
> fairness are all political Exactly. I came to say exactly that. Think a hypothetical of when you're a child and your mom has to decide how many cookies your mom gives you and your brother: * Should mom give you equal cookies? * Or should she your brother 2x the cookies because you're 5 and he's 15 and has 2x the caloric needs? * Or should she give you 10x the cookies because he's had so many cookies in his life and you've had comparatively so few? * Or should he give you more cookies because you're 1/2 his weight and we want to equalize those. * Or maybe she should give you less cookies because you're fat for your age and he's not. * Or maybe she should give you more cookies because you like them more than he does and would get more out of them. * Or maybe she should give you chips because you're allergic to the chocolate in cookies and it would kill you. But what's the right chips to cookies ratio that is fair? And what if your brother also wants chips too, but we only have so many cookies and so many chips and him eating chips means less for you and he can eat cookies, so why should he get chips? But if you're getting 10 chips, and he's getting 0, how is that fair? WTF is "fair"?

remram 6y ago

I don't know, that seems to match real-world policies, where there are unemployment aids but they're usually contingent on you being employed some of the time (e.g. runs out if you haven't been employed in X months).

pjmorris 6y ago
Perhaps the specific example policy seems intuitive to some. I'm wondering about the general case. There's a problem of interpretability in AI models, it seems like there's also a related problem in terms of how to make decisions based on uninterpretable (unintuitive) models.
- remram 6y ago
  Yes, and there's also the possibility of over-fitting, finding a local minimum, or the population size being too small...

maerF0x0 6y ago

> fairness are all political Exactly. I came to say exactly that. Think a hypothetical of when you're a child and your mom has to decide how many cookies your mom gives you and your brother: * Should mom give you equal cookies? * Or should she your brother 2x the cookies because you're 5 and he's 15 and has 2x the caloric needs? * Or should she give you 10x the cookies because he's had so many cookies in his life and you've had comparatively so few? * Or should he give you more cookies because you're 1/2 his weight and we want to equalize those. * Or maybe she should give you less cookies because you're fat for your age and he's not. * Or maybe she should give you more cookies because you like them more than he does and would get more out of them. * Or maybe she should give you chips because you're allergic to the chocolate in cookies and it would kill you. But what's the right chips to cookies ratio that is fair? And what if your brother also wants chips too, but we only have so many cookies and so many chips and him eating chips means less for you and he can eat cookies, so why should he get chips? But if you're getting 10 chips, and he's getting 0, how is that fair? WTF is "fair"?