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The book Soccernomics [0], has a whole chapter dedicated to both the psychology and game theory of penalty kicks. Long story short: - Let's simplify to the op

The book Soccernomics [0], has a whole chapter dedicated to both the psychology and game theory of penalty kicks. Long story short: - Let's simplify to the options being: you kick either left or right - The goalie has to pick which side BEFORE you kick b/c by the time you kick, it's too late for the goalie to react - Your basic strategies are: always left, always right, alternate left/right or try to be as random as possible (which is assumed to be hard for humans) The most fascinating part of their analysis was that elite level soccer players are, essentially, random. I believe they also mention that it's one of the few times in human studies where humans have been this close, statistically, to be able to generate random outcomes. They also go on to wonder if being able to generate random outcomes leads to you being an elite penalty kick specialist or if, over time, you develop that skill as part of the basket of abilities needed to compete at that level 0 - https://amzn.to/3jKr4RK https://amzn.to/3jKr4RK

reitzensteinm 6y ago
Couldn't you just memorise a few random decisions before each match? You don't need to generate it in the moment.
- JamesSwift 6y ago
  Or just flip a coin before you line up for the kick
082349872349872 6y ago
In my university baby foot (table football) circles, matches usually came down to a series of deciding or guessing on near gap vs. far gap. Shannon's Mind Reading Machine used three bits worth of address space to model humans for a very similar game: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23475069 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23475069 (At less elite levels, paradiddles are a great low-budget pseudorandom. At more elite levels, using outside signals for an entropy pool has been attested.)
andrewla 6y ago
I think this is a simplification that in some ways is ignoring the main point of this article -- the Paneka kick described in the article is a kick up the middle; relying on exactly that sort of decision process by the goalkeeper. And the new-style kick being touted is also a meta game -- trying to telegraph a still-likely-to-succeed-on-power-alone kick and changing it up for a less powerful less reliable kick to the opposite side. If the telegraphed kick were less of a threat (that is, if the anticipated speed of the kick were slower) then the goaltender would not have to commit as much. The subtleties here are interesting, though the article is missing a discussion of failed attempts at the Paneka and the Tielemans-style kick.
- thoughtstheseus 6y ago
  This reminds me of elite poker players purposely creating certain play tendencies over years (reducing returns) and waiting to change them for specific high rewarding opportunities.

reitzensteinm 6y ago

Couldn't you just memorise a few random decisions before each match? You don't need to generate it in the moment.

JamesSwift 6y ago
Or just flip a coin before you line up for the kick

082349872349872 6y ago

In my university baby foot (table football) circles, matches usually came down to a series of deciding or guessing on near gap vs. far gap. Shannon's Mind Reading Machine used three bits worth of address space to model humans for a very similar game: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23475069 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23475069 (At less elite levels, paradiddles are a great low-budget pseudorandom. At more elite levels, using outside signals for an entropy pool has been attested.)

andrewla 6y ago

I think this is a simplification that in some ways is ignoring the main point of this article -- the Paneka kick described in the article is a kick up the middle; relying on exactly that sort of decision process by the goalkeeper. And the new-style kick being touted is also a meta game -- trying to telegraph a still-likely-to-succeed-on-power-alone kick and changing it up for a less powerful less reliable kick to the opposite side. If the telegraphed kick were less of a threat (that is, if the anticipated speed of the kick were slower) then the goaltender would not have to commit as much. The subtleties here are interesting, though the article is missing a discussion of failed attempts at the Paneka and the Tielemans-style kick.

thoughtstheseus 6y ago
This reminds me of elite poker players purposely creating certain play tendencies over years (reducing returns) and waiting to change them for specific high rewarding opportunities.