4 ms·
Are you aware of the adjustments that were made by pollsters and meta-pollsters like 538 since 2018? Also, it's not like they were wrong in 2016 -- 538 had a 3
by edmundsauto 6y ago
Are you aware of the adjustments that were made by pollsters and meta-pollsters like 538 since 2018? Also, it's not like they were wrong in 2016 -- 538 had a 30% chance of a Trump victory.
I expected better statistical understanding from this audience, but maybe that only underscores how difficult it is to get people thinking correctly about probabilities.