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This is awful because the balls are not being dropped in the center. Instead, the color of the end slots should change based on probabilities. The skewing of th
by jvanderbot 6y ago
This is awful because the balls are not being dropped in the center. Instead, the color of the end slots should change based on probabilities. The skewing of the entry point implies a bias in prior distribution, which is not the right message.
- shoes_for_thee 6y agoI wouldn't straight up call this 'awful,' but I do agree that probability should be expressed by the color of the end slots.
- nl 6y agoWhy would this make any sense? The probability is expressed by the number of times a ball ends up in each of the end slots. That's the whole point!
- tantalor 6y ago> the balls are not being dropped in the center They are being dropped from the center of the probability distribution, not the center of the electoral vote threshold (which would be nonsense). > skewing of the entry point Skewing from what? > bias in prior distribution That's the point! > color of the end slots should change based on probabilities The height of the bar changes based on the probabilities.
- jvanderbot 6y agoRight. I think a more layperson interpret-able visualization would be to have what appears to be a "fair" (centered) sampling, and show the results based on the likelihood of landing in Trump/Biden. A biased sampling with uniform slots at the bottom shows the same thing, yes.
- Wowfunhappy 6y agoI believe the idea is: 1. We’re dropping the ball at the position the polls (and our models) indicate. 2. The balls may end up in a different place due to any number of unforeseen factors (the pegs).