3 ms·
A bit unrelated to the article, but I have often wondered if there are certain users of prediction markets that have a much better track record than the average
by Xcelerate 6y ago
A bit unrelated to the article, but I have often wondered if there are certain users of prediction markets that have a much better track record than the average person (not just statistical noise, but actually better at predicting events). If so, it seems the owner of the prediction market could ensemble these users’ predictions to make a much better overall prediction than any one individual user.